Jun 2024
9:27am, 22 Jun 2024
68,622 posts
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LindsD
Exactly
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Jun 2024
9:34am, 22 Jun 2024
28,094 posts
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richmac
Don't forget the Tories were successfully still blaming the previous Labour Gov right up to COVID then switched to that.
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Jun 2024
11:53am, 22 Jun 2024
4,235 posts
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Cheg
How many years of Tory rule have we had in the last 100 years? 75? At some point you’ve got to think, is it us?
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Jun 2024
12:01pm, 22 Jun 2024
21,684 posts
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Chrisull
Traditionally politics and elections in this country move slowly, but since 2016 everything's gone a bit weird. 2019 at first looked like a reversion to the mean, but actually merely masked the deeper fault lines and disillusionment people have with all politicians. In 1983 or 1987, predicting a Tory victory would really have been stating the obvious, ditto predicting Labour in 2001 or 2005 was again obvious. The movements between elections were small barring the odd seismic upheaval like 1997 and even that was telegraphed. But now I think even with a massive Labour landslide, 2028/2029 could be anything - a safe Labour followup? A Tory resurrection? The true entryism of the far right and Reform into British politics? The Greens and Lib Dems expanding outwards of their narrow areas of support?? You could have predicted all of these with certainty up until 2020 and Covid. Boris was on course , with 50%+ in the polls, no sign of Reform, Lib Dems would have remained tiny, Greens would have lost their only seat with Caroline Lucas, Starmer would have lacked Johnson's popular touch and maybe run him close this year. Instability and chaos has led to this. Yeah you can laugh and say all those who didn't predict this know nothing, but all we have is past track record and really nothing of this ilk has ever happened before in the UK - only perhaps the 45 election. Even the hung parliaments of the early 70s and the deep disillusionment with both Heath and Wilson didn't lead to the fragmentation we have now. And the amount of seats barely changed between these elections. What we are seeing is utterly unprecedented and we don't know now what will come next. |
Jun 2024
12:33pm, 22 Jun 2024
5,385 posts
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paulcook
Since Lloyd George (Liberal) lost in 1922, which neatly fits with 100 years; we've had about 64 years of Tory rule, 38 of Labour.
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Jun 2024
12:38pm, 22 Jun 2024
26,924 posts
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Bazoaxe
I think it’s to early to predict the next election. We need to see who forms the next government and how they govern.
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Jun 2024
12:46pm, 22 Jun 2024
5,386 posts
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paulcook
Bazoaxe wrote: how they govern 100% |
Jun 2024
1:08pm, 22 Jun 2024
22,482 posts
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rf_fozzy
Seems like farage is not as politically smart as some think he is. His pro-russia stance and support of conspiracy theories about NATO and the EU provocation might tip a tight constituency election away from him. He had a chance to walk it back, but didn't That plus his defence of openly racist candidates standing for his company Of course, it may well be he really doesn't want to be elected as an MP as it will stop him going to America and also will lead to extra scrutiny. |
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Jun 2024
1:48pm, 22 Jun 2024
5,387 posts
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paulcook
I prefer it that way. At least you know who he is rather than pussy footing around answers trying not to offend anyone.
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Jun 2024
3:18pm, 22 Jun 2024
44,754 posts
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SPR
More budget holes, this time around social care: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw44del3pd7o? The plans for a cap make no sense from a funding point of view. Social care is already a massive pressure and asking councils to fund more of it will just cause more issues. |
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