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May 2020
9:53am, 27 May 2020
2,498 posts
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um
I assume (well, hope) that the 2000 cases a day can be readily identified - whether a 'few' hotspots & work related, or a wider general spread across the country?
But with an R between 0.7 and 1, it will take a long time to tail off or disappear.
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May 2020
10:26am, 27 May 2020
37,074 posts
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LindsD
According to an email from the council, tests are only for the symptomatic.
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May 2020
10:28am, 27 May 2020
610 posts
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Jenelopy
Today was a great day here in NZ, the final covid patient was discharged from hospital, and it was the 5th day in a row with no new cases!
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May 2020
10:28am, 27 May 2020
37,075 posts
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LindsD
That's brilliant, and gives us some hope.
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May 2020
10:28am, 27 May 2020
17,540 posts
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EvilPixie
*claps*
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May 2020
10:31am, 27 May 2020
611 posts
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Jenelopy
Hopefully the UK will get to this point too.
The "go hard, go early " with a dash of kindness has worked.
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May 2020
10:52am, 27 May 2020
34,668 posts
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DocM
it feels like most people i know have bent the rules to some degree (meeting more than one friend etc) but IMHO what they have done doesn't sound like things that increase risk in reality.
A dash of kindness is important
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May 2020
11:01am, 27 May 2020
2,340 posts
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Canute
I agree with the view expressed by many here that outdoor contact probably provides low probability of transmission. That is why I think outdoor exercise should be allowed during self-isolation. However we still do not know enough about what types of contact promote transmission. Testing and tracing is probably the best way to improve knowledge about this. I doubt that SIR or SEIR modelling of transmission in populations is an effective way to answer these questions. I am therefore strongly in favour of extensive testing and tracing for the purpose of increasing knowledge about transmission even if we do not introduce strict self-isolation.
The information that we get might tell us that certain types of interaction are fairly safe. For example, young children hugging grandparent might be fairly safe; school classrooms might be fairly safe; CV-19 wards in which staff have good PPE and good training might be fairly safe for hospital staff. I hope all these things are true but at present we do not have strong confirmation of these hopes. It would certainly be very valuable to have confirmation. Testing and tracing of contacts would help provide the confirmation.
However, it is also probable that it would confirm that certain situations are unsafe e.g. working in noisy factories where communication requires raised voices; travelling on crowded public transport. My current fear, based on what we know about the mechanisms of transmission, is that these situations are dangerous. It is probable that the main thing we can do to make these situations fairly safe is to reduce the prevalence of active cases in the community to very low levels.
As I see it, the best hope for reducing prevalence of cases in the community within the next few months is the addition of strict of self–isolation to a test and trace program. Masks when in public spaces, travel restrictions and good PPE for health and care personnel are also likely to be necessary. Composite programmes along these lines have succeeded in achieving initial control in various countries in east Asia and Australasia. The other possibility is herd immunity, but the likelihood of herd immunity in the near future remains debateable. I think we should at least examine the feasibility of test, trace and self-isolation before dismissing it because it is likely to be difficult.
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May 2020
11:27am, 27 May 2020
2,578 posts
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Tim of Fife
Just had a membership call from my local golf club. Gulp. Haven't picked up a club in anger since I was a teenager. But have a shiny new set in the garage. So, suppose I better give them a go.
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May 2020
12:21pm, 27 May 2020
16,229 posts
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Rosehip
"I think we should at least examine the feasibility of test, trace and self-isolation before dismissing it because it is likely to be difficult"
Yes, and I think data and privacy concerns over the use of an app need to be weighed up against the potential benefits and I'm coming down in favour of the latter.
Should Oyster cards or cashless bank card payments on public transport be used to trace possible contacts?- that's a harder one to balance, maybe, but the potential to trace and get the right people tested could be huge.
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Coronavirus discussion thread
Jan 2025