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May 2020
8:28am, 27 May 2020
953 posts
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Turtlemama
I'm also concerned how this will work given the apparent High number of asymptomatic carriers. Testing asymptomatic staff at the hospital in Weston resulted in 40% of staff self isolating. Not sustainable across the NHS as a whole, and suggests track and trace may be ineffective if asymptomatic people don't get tested.
Similarly at work, I can visit 6 or 7 people in a shift. I have no symptoms (but the above suggests I could have a 40% chance of being a carrier. If a patient has symptoms would I have to isolate if they become ill after seeing me? I can't see how it would work in the health and care sectors, despite these sectors being probable vectors of transmission.
In other news, it seems I can now go to the park for a picnic with my daughter as long as I keep 2 metres away from other groups. Fine. I an also meet my father in said park, keeping 2m away. Lovely. Yet I can't meet both my mother AND father with distancing? Even though 2m away from my daughter and I may be another picnicking couple unrelated to me???
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May 2020
8:33am, 27 May 2020
7,471 posts
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jda
The lockdown only works while it's in operation, that is the nature of these things. How far we can return towards normal before the numbers start climbing again, that's anyone's guess. The modellers have some vague ideas (and the answer is: not very close to normal) but as for what happens when we hit and pass that point...the govt does not appear to have any plan.
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May 2020
8:38am, 27 May 2020
17,536 posts
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EvilPixie
JDA any comments on how soon that will be given the numbers we are seeing?
I know that we on here have commented that things have relaxed now for about 3 weeks and we have been expecting an increase. I was sure we wouldn't get to the idea of schools returning next week as there would be in increase before and lockdown tightened.
The figures seem fairly stable for now though?
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May 2020
8:45am, 27 May 2020
16,538 posts
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Bazoaxe
I would have thought we will learn from Italy and Spain as they have been opening up more than we have.
I do worry that the noises indicate we are going to move faster than I thought. There seems to be talk of holidays and flights starting up. I just cannot see how that can be a good thing. Do you want to spend 3 hrs on a plane with 300 strangers and then rely on healthcare somewhere you are unfamiliar with. That's a tough call and one that those of us with flights already booked are going to need to take a tough call on.
The opening up in England still seems quite limited in comparison and in Scotland we have had no change and wait to see what is announced tomorrow that we can do from Friday.
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May 2020
8:55am, 27 May 2020
3,547 posts
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K5 Gus
If I had symptoms, then under Track and Trace it's urgent that I get tested as soon as possible - my nearest "fixed" test centre is about 1h 20m drive away - I live alone, and if I have fever etc I doubt I would fancy that sort of drive.
"There are also a number of mobile testing units which will be located in towns across Scotland for short periods each time." - sounds a bit hit or miss as to whether there would be anything near, and also likely to be a minimum of 30 min drive each way.
So if not feeling well enough to drive looks like it could be a postal kit for me, which when you add together time to post it out, then me to send it back, then wait for results, doesn't sound like it will be a rapid turnaround
The joys of living in a quite remote location 
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May 2020
8:57am, 27 May 2020
7,472 posts
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jda
The outdoor activities were never much of a risk anyway, that was more a case of hygiene theatre and "we're all in it together" than anything related to disease risk (given the situation we were in, perhaps one could view it more charitably as a desperate attempt to pull out all the stops as every little help counted at that stage). But seeing more people going around outside probably isn't going to mean much for the disease.
As for the limited returning to work that has been allowed...I don't know how much has actually happened, obviously schools are still out, large majority of shops are shut and the google mobility data (up to May 16) shows we are still a long way from March behaviour. If there had been a big change on say 11 May we would be starting to see effects in the death numbers around now. The case data are perhaps a little more worrying in that the numbers seem to have roughly stabilised rather than continuing to fall steadily. But making sense of those data does depend on the system being reliable and consistent.
Any major change feeds into death numbers from about 2 weeks onwards (and would be more obvious from 3), but should be visible in case numbers sooner if the system is reliable enough.
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May 2020
9:03am, 27 May 2020
2,577 posts
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Tim of Fife
Whilst I under the thinking behind England and Scotland having different pathways, I don't think it is ideal - especially when a lot of people may only watch the UK news headlines.
Regardless though, I think that more and more people are using common sense (not Cummings' version of it, by the way).
So, in both England and Scotland, small family or friendship groups are meeting up outside - whether in a park or private garden.
Provided they are physically distancing and not entering property, I haven't an issue with that.
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May 2020
9:05am, 27 May 2020
954 posts
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Turtlemama
Is the case data not falling simply because of the increase in testing, and availability of tests to far more people, including the asymptomatic? I've not much idea about statistics or epidemiology but that's what I was assuming.
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May 2020
9:13am, 27 May 2020
7,473 posts
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jda
Agreed it's hard to know what to make of the numbers given changes in policy. But while there are still 2000 cases per day it's not gone away.
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May 2020
9:33am, 27 May 2020
16,539 posts
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Bazoaxe
..... and if it’s not gone away it is surely inevitable that the numbers rise when the U.K. ease things on 1 and 15 June. Ie mid to late June we will see the numbers increase again.
How Scotland manage a slower trajectory will be interesting and does that have an effect on things.
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