Coronavirus **support** thread
4 lurkers |
160 watchers
Jun 2020
12:23pm, 8 Jun 2020
16,654 posts
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Bazoaxe
EP, I am confused. If there is at least one asymtomatic case for every symptomatic case, then that suggests that more than 50% of cases have no symptoms ?
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Jun 2020
12:25pm, 8 Jun 2020
17,648 posts
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EvilPixie
it does suggest that for every 1 we see with symptoms that there is a carrier showing now symptoms they would therefore not get tested normally and happily spread the virus |
Jun 2020
12:37pm, 8 Jun 2020
19,909 posts
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Dvorak
In a way, are asymptomatic cases even cases? Is there actually any solid evidence re asymptomatic spread? Without hopefully straying too far into politics thread territory: if there is asymptomatic spread and you have, even in lower transmission risk conditions, thousands of people gathered who may be largely in the asymptomatic/ low symptom group, who then spread back out ... well, that doesn't seem a great scenario. |
Jun 2020
1:02pm, 8 Jun 2020
2,699 posts
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Little Miss Happy
I'm sure someone better informed will be along shortly but I don't think there has been much research done on asymptomatic infection.
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Jun 2020
1:15pm, 8 Jun 2020
7,561 posts
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jda
I don't see that as particularly big news. I've been assuming 50% asymptomatic in my modelling right from the start (not that it really affects the model itself, but it's part of the assumptions for parameter values). Some people have claimed up to about 80% asymptomatic but that seems a stretch and usually looks like motivated reasoning from those trying to argue it's no big deal. One thing that has been interesting from this whole episode is the increased acceptance and understanding that people can experience a very wide range of severities from the same virus. There have always been people who say things like "it can't really have been flu if you got over it quickly", which seems contrary to my experiences. |
Jun 2020
1:20pm, 8 Jun 2020
34,913 posts
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DocM
uk.reuters.com this suggests it could all have been a lot worse |
Jun 2020
2:11pm, 8 Jun 2020
2,368 posts
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Canute
There are clearly gradations of severity of cV_19, but I nonetheless think it is useful to divide the population into 5 groups: The largest group has not yet been infected (perhaps 90% ). The second group who have been infected, recovered and now carrying antibodies (probably in the range 5-10% depending). They probably have at least a degree of immunity. The third group are currently infected and showing symptoms. They might be around 0.05% of the population (i.e. 5 in 10,000). The estimate is not reliable because we do not yet have an effective test and trace program. The fourth group is those incubating the illness who will exhibit symptoms in the near future. Group 4 are definitely able to transmit the virus and contribute to the high transmissibility of the illness. The fifth group carry the virus but will not exhibit symptoms. It is not clear how strongly group 5 transmit the illness. The 4th and 5th groups together make up a similar proportion of the population as the currently symptomatic cases (group 3). We need an effective test and trace program that identifies groups 3, 4 and 5. It seems to me, the ideal program would test all cases with symptoms when symptoms appear, return the results within 24 hours, and then trace their contacts. All of their contacts should then be asked to self-isolate for at least 5 days after the contact, and then tested on the 5th day. Those that test negative on the 5th day should be released from isolation but advised to maintain social distancing as far as possible for a further week. Those that test positive on the fifth day continue to self- isolate for a week; if they develop symptoms they remain isolated until a week after symptoms appear. This is complex, but an effective TTI team would maintain daily contact with all identified contacts supporting them and advising them on what they should do until they are in the clear. I do not anticipate that this will happen. but it is what I would be trying to implement if I were Matt Hancock. |
Jun 2020
2:19pm, 8 Jun 2020
37,604 posts
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LindsD
I wish you were.
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Jun 2020
2:50pm, 8 Jun 2020
10,343 posts
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geordiegirl
I second that LindsD
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Jun 2020
2:53pm, 8 Jun 2020
16,528 posts
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Rosehip
Isn't it the unknown number of asymptomatic carriers which is driving the call to wear face-covering in public? I shan't be going near shopping centres or indoors at a pub or restaurant and I haven't yet spoken to anyone who wants to either. Wouldn't mind sitting in a tea garden with a plate of scones and retiring to a tent afterwards though! |
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