23 Aug
12:11pm, 23 Aug 2024
32,941 posts
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Johnny Blaze
So I'm going 350 EC votes for her, and that's a low prediction. 270 needed to win.
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23 Aug
12:23pm, 23 Aug 2024
50,758 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Lol @rf_fozzy 50% +/- 5% then. Doesn't matter who I say, because 45/55 either way is within that margin of error. i.e. it's strictly, mathematically accurate and with reasonable tolerance. And in terms of our game is absolutely f*ckin useless! Hope she wins, of course, looks tight right up to the wire. But hoping for a big, decisive win and a change in politics in USA all round. And the complete evisceration of trump.  G
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23 Aug
12:26pm, 23 Aug 2024
32,942 posts
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Johnny Blaze
He will probably wind up in jail if he loses. No way will he concede. No. Way.
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23 Aug
12:30pm, 23 Aug 2024
1,465 posts
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EarlyRiser
Going back to other topic. jda wrote: . Much as I'd like to believe that, free movement is anything but a quick easy free win. It's basically at the heart of the European project. The EU free movement idea is precisely the sort of quick easy free win that the govt needs to grab with both hands while it struggles with the expensive and slow stuff And on this one. 271 is good enough for me. |
23 Aug
1:24pm, 23 Aug 2024
29,021 posts
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richmac
Johnny Blaze wrote: He will probably wind up in jail if he loses. No way will he concede. No. Way. I can see him hiding out in Scotland - poor bastards |
23 Aug
1:40pm, 23 Aug 2024
22,062 posts
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Chrisull
Yeah I think ECVotes for the Democrats is probably the best poll. Also reasons to be pessimistic. One - the Senate will almost certainly be lost. This is because not all seats are up for grabs and most are Democratic defences. In all likelihood only one or two will change hands, but in Montana Jon Tester is trailing by 7 points or so in most polls. I have seen one poll where he leads. Two - unless the vote massively widens, it is STILL down to a handful of battleground states. Let's list them: Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona Nevada Georgia and possibly North Carolina So just 7 states decide the outcome really. So yes the trend is all one way, but the rest of the states from California to Texas and Florida are ALREADY DECIDED. Both candidates probably have close to 200 electoral college votes in the bag. It may well be that all those states go to Harris. In which case she wins easily, gets over 300 and Trump is under 200. But already that's closer than some semi-recent maps. Harris widening in the polls doesn't change the state of play here. Three - In some of the states the power has been handed to pro MAGA legislators who are already readying up to not certify or to certify the votes in a split fashion as per the actual state vote. So if Harris wins 60%-40% in a state, and there were 10 EC votes for this state, they are gonna give her 6 votes and Trump 4, rather than the 10 normally given. This is why Harris needs to win comfortably. So let's not get carried away here. You can think Harris is winning in the polls and that margin may well continue to widen, but Obama 2008 this is not. |
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23 Aug
1:41pm, 23 Aug 2024
22,063 posts
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Chrisull
@fetcheveryone - do you think that number of ECV votes for Harris is the best poll? Ready to hear other suggestions. And if we do that, bear in mind everybody under 270 is a tie and under 270 is a Trump win. |
23 Aug
1:48pm, 23 Aug 2024
25,415 posts
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larkim
Chrisull wrote: Three - In some of the states the power has been handed to pro MAGA legislators who are already readying up to not certify or to certify the votes in a split fashion as per the actual state vote. So if Harris wins 60%-40% in a state, and there were 10 EC votes for this state, they are gonna give her 6 votes and Trump 4, rather than the 10 normally given. This is why Harris needs to win comfortably. So let's not get carried away here. What's the source for that change in the way the electors will cast their votes? And how likely is it? |
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23 Aug
2:00pm, 23 Aug 2024
32,943 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Florida isn't lost. She is in with a shout.
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23 Aug
2:16pm, 23 Aug 2024
1,466 posts
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EarlyRiser
Contra to my last comment, I also believe the margin of a Democrat victory needs to be big enough to (1) avoid risk of actual conflict and (2) change the trajectory of politics over there. But I don't see the following as a real possibility: Chrisull wrote: ... In some of the states the power has been handed to pro MAGA legislators who are already readying up to not certify or to certify the votes in a split fashion as per the actual state vote. So if Harris wins 60%-40% in a state, and there were 10 EC votes for this state, they are gonna give her 6 votes and Trump 4, rather than the 10 normally given. This is why Harris needs to win comfortably. It's remains the case (unless I'm mistaken!) that only Nebraska and Maine split electoral votes. Any others that attempt to do so, I cannot see as being anything other than obstructionism that will eventually be put aside. |
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