23 Aug
10:11am, 23 Aug 2024
22,930 posts
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rf_fozzy
fetcheveryone wrote: Yes I know Trump was the first person to do it since the 19th century. Not quite. 2000 as well en.wikipedia.org |
23 Aug
10:11am, 23 Aug 2024
25,410 posts
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larkim
But does Trump melting down do anything other than reinforcing to those who already know he's an idiot, that he's an idiot. And anyone who already thinks he's worth voting for doesn't care? It seems hard to conceive of his support ebbing away because he's already appalling. The "grab them by the ****" comment on its own would have been the end of any political career for anyone other than him. |
23 Aug
10:11am, 23 Aug 2024
31,011 posts
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fetcheveryone
JFK came close - 49.7% (303 EV) versus Nixon - 49.5% (219 EV)
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23 Aug
10:13am, 23 Aug 2024
31,012 posts
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fetcheveryone
rf_fozzy wrote: fetcheveryone wrote:Yes I know Trump was the first person to do it since the 19th century. Not quite. 2000 as well en.wikipedia.org My Brittanica link (on previous page) has it wrong then. It says 48.4% for Bush versus 47.9% for Gore. |
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23 Aug
10:16am, 23 Aug 2024
22,931 posts
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rf_fozzy
Think they have that the wrong way round.
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23 Aug
10:19am, 23 Aug 2024
31,013 posts
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fetcheveryone
I've let them know 
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23 Aug
10:29am, 23 Aug 2024
22,932 posts
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rf_fozzy
OK, so cards on the table. At the moment, I can't see anything other than a Harris win. Why? 1. Harris has the momentum at the moment - this can (and will to some extent) change, but the wind is clearly blowing in her direction. 2. US elections (and in most countries most of the time) are about who has a positive vision for the country - Harris at the moment might be "vibes," but there is an undoubted positivity about her and her campaign. Trump on the other hand is preaching that America is some kind of distaster zone - yes that might fire up a certain type of voter, but there is a ceiling. 3. Harris isn't 3billion years old. Part of the issue with Biden-Trump was the age of Biden and the polling was showing that really the US public wanted neither of them 4. Trump cannot stay on message. He's reacting to everything that Harris does - listen to his calls into Fox/Newsmax etc - he's obsessively watching the DNC this week and reacting to everything he percieves as a slight. This is different to 2016 where the Ds reacted to everything he tweeted and 2020 where they sort of had to react as he was the sitting president. 5. Also the media have stopped reacting to everything Trump says in the same way - there's much more weariness in the way they're reporting him now. In 2015/6 his tweets grabbed the news coverage, in 2020 he had the Presidental bully pulpit. Now he doesn't have that. Instead the coverage is much more on Harris - certainly at the moment. It could be that the debate in a couple of days is the sink or swim moment, and Harris is going to have to do some press and talk policy at some point, but I think for Trump to win now, he *has* to change the narrative and given he's running the exact same campaign as 2016 and 2020 (down to using the precise same lines - it's quite funny - he's just changed the names from 'Crooked Hilary' to 'Sleepy Joe' to 'Crazy Kamala' - everything else is the same phrasing word for word), there's no evidence that he can do so. |
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23 Aug
10:30am, 23 Aug 2024
22,933 posts
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rf_fozzy
*couple of days should have said couple of weeks.... Debate is 10th Sept. |
23 Aug
10:31am, 23 Aug 2024
6,254 posts
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paulcook
larkim wrote: As a starmerite, I'm perfectly happy with the way we're doing things over here. We need Fields back! |
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23 Aug
10:32am, 23 Aug 2024
22,934 posts
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rf_fozzy
paulcook wrote: larkim wrote:As a starmerite, I'm perfectly happy with the way we're doing things over here. We need Fields back! No. We don't. I don't have to wade through pages of kittens now. The current state is a significant improvement. |
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