23 Aug
11:40am, 23 Aug 2024
45,800 posts
|
SPR
Trump can't do anything that would mean he gains power if he loses because he has no power.
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23 Aug
11:41am, 23 Aug 2024
22,935 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Yakima Canutt wrote: It's an area Harris was in charge of and there are cracks there that are going to get chiseled. Of course, this isn't true. She was in charge of looking at ways of disuading migrants from Central America trying to make border crossings. The solutions are of course complex and "deport them all" which is Trump's policy - yes it is that stupid - cannot and won't work... |
23 Aug
11:42am, 23 Aug 2024
32,938 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
I'm gonna say 43% Trump, 53% Harris, which means she gets a landslide. Probably. Hopefully.
|
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23 Aug
11:45am, 23 Aug 2024
32,939 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
SPR wrote: Trump can't do anything that would mean he gains power if he loses because he has no power. I think we should come back to that... I tend to agree, but what he could do is sow chaos and confusion in the certification process and who knows how that will pan out. He will end up losing but he will do an immense amount of damage in the process is my guess. He just doesn't care. |
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23 Aug
11:45am, 23 Aug 2024
22,936 posts
|
rf_fozzy
This is why I think it's one direction from here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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23 Aug
11:51am, 23 Aug 2024
31,014 posts
|
fetcheveryone
Is it time for a "guess the number of electoral votes" poll?
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23 Aug
11:52am, 23 Aug 2024
31,015 posts
|
fetcheveryone
Or maybe easier - guess the percentage of the popular vote each candidate will achieve.
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23 Aug
11:53am, 23 Aug 2024
22,937 posts
|
rf_fozzy
EV would be more precient. However, we *must* include uncertainty 
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23 Aug
11:59am, 23 Aug 2024
25,414 posts
|
larkim
OK, I reckon Harris 51 (+/- 5 points for uncertainty) and Trump 49 (+/- 5 points). Do I win? |
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23 Aug
12:10pm, 23 Aug 2024
32,940 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
Polls are a snapshot not a prediction - pollsplaining moi. But directionally it's only going one way at the moment. If she hangs on to the marginal swing states from last time and adds North Carolina and (possibly) Ohio and/or Florida, it's a landslide. |
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