Garmin

220 watchers

SPR 18 Sep 4:06pm, 18 Sep 2024 46,167 posts	0 SPR @larkim Well the question about over complicating should be directed at Garmin as they clearly think they can do better as the predictor could do just that, but it doesn't. For the end user it's simply looking at screen and that data should work as well as possible. @chunkyblizzard I presume you definitely have the update with the improvement in it? Did you actually see a change? When the update happened is obvious on my watch.
larkim 18 Sep 4:21pm, 18 Sep 2024 25,635 posts	0 larkim SPR wrote:@larkim Well the question about over complicating should be directed at Garmin as they clearly think they can do better as the predictor could do just that, but it doesn't. For the end user it's simply looking at screen and that data should work as well as possible. It just strikes me as seeking perfection where none exists. And coupled with the fact that I think we'd all agree that up to now the predictions are pretty unreliable, even if they are also occasionally correct. I'm biased because I've got the old generation watch which just reads off a comparator table but pays little heed at all to specificity. So yes, perhaps a 19:11 5k does equate to a 3:03:41 marathon - but there's no point telling me that that is a predictor without really analysing my actual volume and specific training. And I do know it's tried to get better at it, and I'm surprised that up to now it hasn't taken account of actual race outcomes, as that is by far the simplest and most effective way of predicting at a moment in time. Runalyze has a similar issue, though it does try to couch it in terms of ranges etc.
Charlesvdw 18 Sep 4:57pm, 18 Sep 2024 390 posts	0 Charlesvdw The best race predictor is another race.
SPR 18 Sep 5:48pm, 18 Sep 2024 46,168 posts	0 SPR AIUI version 2 of the predictor was essentially VO2 Max predictions offset by training load (how much and type including long runs for marathon). This failed for me at (5k to HM) as version 1 predictor based solely on VO2 Max, already predicted my 5k pretty well (three seasons within 10 secs) and the training offset just made it and all the other predictions slower. I didn't care about the other predictions on the old predictor but they were always optimistic as VO2 Max only predictions seem to be. I did check FirstBeats and the page about race predictor hasn't been updated to explain how recent efforts are incorporated yet. Personally, I'd like this update to the predictor to work well. I generally don't do measured racing over the winter and while I don't need the predictions, having decent ones would be good.
Rosehip 18 Sep 10:59pm, 18 Sep 2024 33,222 posts	0 Rosehip Mine are looking more realistic - ie much slower than they were the change is obvious as in SPR's pic above but in the opposite direction. I haven't raced and it's unlikely that I'll put in the effort to see how accurate they are
Big_G 19 Sep 7:14am, 19 Sep 2024 4,017 posts	0 Big_G Larkim, I’m surprised as I had you down as a guy who loved the stats, and analysing trending etc! But I basically use McMillan for my predictions, which has worked well for me in the past. My watch doesn’t have those graphs for individual race distances so I’m guessing it doesn’t have the new update (Fenix 6x Pro)?
Rosehip 19 Sep 8:12am, 19 Sep 2024 33,224 posts	0 Rosehip think you should be able to find them somewhere Big_G on my 7 they are accessible from the VO2max widget
Big_G 19 Sep 8:17am, 19 Sep 2024 4,020 posts	0 Big_G Yeah, I have the VO2 Max widget and as part of that there is a Race Predictor screen, but it just lists times for 5K, 10K, Half and Full - ie, there is no graph to view from the watch (haven’t checked the app).
SPR 19 Sep 8:27am, 19 Sep 2024 46,169 posts	0 SPR I presume you have the old screen where it just shows the four times on one screen? The chart was introduced a while back so I think you were on the same predictor for as long as the 6 was getting updates. A quick check of the Garmin forum shows the last update for the 6 was four months back though so it won't have this improvement. Interesting that there are some complaints about ruining previously good predictions on the 7 forum.
larkim 19 Sep 8:29am, 19 Sep 2024 25,636 posts	0 larkim @Big_G yep, I can see the contradiction! I suppose it's because whilst I like the data and so on, I do like to own the "form" / "capability" thing myself.