Garmin

5 lurkers | 215 watchers
18 Sep
7:59am, 18 Sep 2024
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chunkywizard
where are you seeing that reported Charles?
SPR
18 Sep
8:07am, 18 Sep 2024
46,161 posts
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SPR
I posted this in the sub 3 thread last week.

Re the discussion we had about race predictor previously, the latest Garmin update (20.26) for the 255 dropped my race predictor times quite a bit from where they currently are and the change log lists Improvements to race time predictions based on fitness level and recent efforts. Mine were too slow previously so given they dropped by over a minute, they might be more accurate now as they were out by that much when I was in race shape for 5k. Unfortunately I'm not clear on my actual shape currently and won't be testing that soon (see 3:15 thread for why).

It's only at 20% rollout currently so not many have it but will be interested in what it does to predictions for others and accuracy (all x55 watches should get the update, not sure if x45 watches will get it eventually).
18 Sep
8:28am, 18 Sep 2024
17,527 posts
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chunkywizard
Thanks SPR. So one line in an update. I would have thought if it has significant DCR would have blogged it. Has anyone noticed any difference since updating?

My 5K time is currently 19:27 which is 1:26 better than my seasons best...
SPR
18 Sep
9:04am, 18 Sep 2024
46,162 posts
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SPR
I was surprised nothing was noted on the kit blogs but if it's accurate for you, I guess you won't notice.

Mine went from almost 20 mins for 5k to 18 mins currently. For perspective at 5-7 points higher for VO2 Max and a lot more training, it was sometimes showing slower which was silly. I'm pretty sure mine will be closer now but whether it's accurate is another matter.

What watch do you have?
18 Sep
9:11am, 18 Sep 2024
4,805 posts
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WayOfTheDodo
I’ve got new version on my 255 and wondered why my predictions were suddenly a little more sensible. Previously my 5k prediction was far too quick and my marathon prediction too slow. Now they all look stretching but just about achievable on a perfect day with amazing prep!
18 Sep
9:26am, 18 Sep 2024
387 posts
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Charlesvdw
I don’t see it reported but I saw it myself.
In the past race predictions didn’t change even after a race, which was crazy.
You could run a 20 min 5k and Garmin would still predict a 21:55 time.
Now they fixed that.
18 Sep
9:34am, 18 Sep 2024
70,984 posts
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Velociraptor
Just before the update, and after I'd run 50:12 for 10k.

Just after the update.

(All stretchy.)
18 Sep
12:32pm, 18 Sep 2024
388 posts
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Charlesvdw
Still not perfect then.
18 Sep
12:48pm, 18 Sep 2024
25,630 posts
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larkim
It'll never be perfect. And, to be honest, do any of us that run a fair amount really need the watch to give us an indication of how fast we could run those standard distances?
SPR
18 Sep
12:58pm, 18 Sep 2024
46,163 posts
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SPR
TBF a predictor could think a race isn't your best effort for some reason and 4 secs per km seems reasonable for that. If it thinks you can sustain a higher HR for example then it's reasonable for it to predict a faster pace than you raced. Would be interested in whether @Velociraptor sees any parameters that may explain it thinking she could run faster.

It is more than races though. Mine changed either immediately after update or a short run that was near a full effort. My predictions (and threshold pace) should have been higher previously but it really just seemed to ignore any actual paces you do and base calculations all on theory. Will be interesting to see if this feeds into threshold pace or whether further changes are coming.

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