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Jun 2020
10:47am, 2 Jun 2020
34,806 posts
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DocM
its clear more and more is being understood about the virus and its transmission which helps to inform how we can manage it. We know about who is most vulnerable so can target who needs to be protected most. We know that viral load is very important in severity of the disease so outdoor transmission is less risky than indoor transmission. We are likely to pick up cases at a much earlier stage than at the start of the pandemic and treatment is becoming more refined. The good weather is giving us a great opportunity to increase social interaction in a low risk manner, never going to be risk free, but nothing is.
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Jun 2020
11:03am, 2 Jun 2020
4,080 posts
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run free
I wonder if it is all to do with the weather with increased vit D production.
Have been watching the number of "serious cases" in Asia and they have been much lower than in Europe / USA even in their early outbreaks. Singapore is very densely populated & despite the outbreaks, the clusters had very few serious cases even in its early stages. Malaysia & Thailand have also had significantly less "serious cases" in comparison to Europe
Europe has come out of Winter and colder weather. The weather in the UK has been much warmer than usual with a significant amount of sunshine. So perhaps cases that do surface might also suffer lesser symptoms during the summer months? Just a thought
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Jun 2020
11:13am, 2 Jun 2020
7,519 posts
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jda
Unfortunately there is plenty of bad faith bullshit "science" being spread around by the usual suspects. The virus has not gone away and is unlikely to do so any time soon.
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Jun 2020
11:15am, 2 Jun 2020
17,599 posts
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EvilPixie
that was my thought JDA just people clutching at straws
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Jun 2020
11:16am, 2 Jun 2020
17,600 posts
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EvilPixie
does your modeling show any increases yet and can you suggest when/if we will get another hit
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Jun 2020
11:19am, 2 Jun 2020
2,352 posts
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Canute
Happy G, first, thank you for that kind comment earlier today. Your final ‘perhaps?!’ is well justified. Nonetheless, thanks.
At this stage there is little clear evidence indicating that there has been an appreciable change in the virus itself or in the nature of the interactions between the virus and the human population. Throughout this epidemic there have been several very puzzling features. The role of the sensible scientist is to keep an open mind about what is uncertain, but nonetheless, make it clear what is fairly certain and distinguish that from the interesting speculations. As I see the evidence, the balance of evidence still indicates there is still a high probability that CV-19 remains very infectious; in some cases it still produces a truly horrible illness, and it still has a moderately high mortality rate. Therefore we should not make any major reductions in our defences and the UK should proceed with developing an effective test and trace program.
As I see it the greatest reason for optimism at the moment is the evidence that many countries (not just the four that I described in my recent blog) have controlled the virus very effectivity with a test, trace and isolation program.
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Jun 2020
11:20am, 2 Jun 2020
17,601 posts
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EvilPixie
did you see a Dr from Wuhan who has been in ICU for 4 months has died 
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Jun 2020
11:20am, 2 Jun 2020
7,733 posts
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CStar
Have just been told that the muppets at DfE in their infinite wisdom have decided that only 25% of a year group can go back to school at any one time for years 10 & 12. So for a school of 1000 students in Years 7-11, only 60 can be on site and that's before subtracting those whose parents choose not to send them in.
My son who had GCSE's next year, will get one day a week for 5 weeks. That's it. GCSE's next year will be a complete shambles as a result. Teachers are stressed, students are either stressed or completely disengaged. It's a complete farce. There is absolute minimal risk to the children and their education is being trashed. It's pathetic frankly.
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Jun 2020
11:22am, 2 Jun 2020
16,568 posts
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Bazoaxe
I read something yesterday. May have been linked here. That suggested people immunised against bcg and some other things may have some level of protection. Think it was guesswork though rather than based on fact.
My work message is to prepare to work from home for the rest of the year. That’s quite hard to get your head around. They will keep under review and update if things change.
Meanwhile easyJet are resuming flights to Europe it seems. I am wondering what they class turkey as. I really hope our flights are cancelled and we are not forced to decide if we take our chances and go or forfeit they money which would be a big hit.
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Jun 2020
11:36am, 2 Jun 2020
2,629 posts
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Little Miss Happy
The BCG rumour has been doing the rounds for a few weeks Baz.
This is going to have long term consequences for a lot of people I'm afraid CStar.
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