Politics

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paulcook
paulcook
13 Sep
3:50pm, 13 Sep 2024
6,435 posts
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paulcook
You've made me think what's really the name for America (at least the continent(s)) given it's named after a 15th century explorer.
larkim
larkim
13 Sep
4:08pm, 13 Sep 2024
25,592 posts
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larkim
I guess the land mass we know as "The Americas" won't have a single first nations' name, unlike NZ where Aotearoa has been settled on by the Maori people as a seemingly acceptable-enough name for the land mass. Trying to come up with something other than "American" is tough, especially as there are dual connotations with America as "continent" and "country".
Johnny Blaze
Johnny Blaze
13 Sep
4:34pm, 13 Sep 2024
33,105 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Chrisull wrote:I tend to agree, it's just they may still be dead with Harris, but it does highlight that most Trump voters vote Trump no matter what, and most Biden voters would have voted Biden no matter what, and will vote for Harris now instead. No-one that much is changing their minds , the main difference is some people unenthused by Biden who wouldn't have voted, now might vote. Turnout and registration remain key for the Dems because they have the numbers needed, as they did in 2016 but didn't persuade them to come out.


Yes, it may come down to turnout and registration.

And enthusiasm. Lots of enthusiasm for the Dems but I sense the same enthusiasm for Reps as shown by those tens of Ukippers who turned up to Nigel Farage's Jarrow March.

There is simply no chance of Trump winning the popular vote. It's the electoral college which is stuffing things up. I'm still in with Harris winning more than 53% of the vote.
rf_fozzy
rf_fozzy
13 Sep
4:44pm, 13 Sep 2024
23,055 posts
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rf_fozzy
FPTP has a lot to answer for.

7 states will decide the election
rf_fozzy
rf_fozzy
13 Sep
4:46pm, 13 Sep 2024
23,056 posts
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rf_fozzy
I'm still in with Harris winning more than 53% of the vote.


Given Obama got 52.9% in 2008, I'd say Harris getting 53% is optimistic
Johnny Blaze
Johnny Blaze
13 Sep
4:48pm, 13 Sep 2024
33,106 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Trump 46% in last 2 elections and currently 44% in the 538 average. "If" he only gets 44% of the vote he is toast.
rf_fozzy
rf_fozzy
13 Sep
4:49pm, 13 Sep 2024
23,057 posts
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rf_fozzy
NC for example has been thrown into somewhat turmoil due to the fact that RFK Jr applied to have his name taken off the ballot too late, but the NC supreme Court (5-2 R maj) overruled the law because it will help trump.

Early (and overseas) voting is supposed to start asap as per federal law, but NC have to completely redesign and reprint their ballots from scratch.

This might well be enough to ensure trump holds NC.
Johnny Blaze
Johnny Blaze
13 Sep
4:49pm, 13 Sep 2024
33,107 posts
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Johnny Blaze
rf_fozzy wrote: I'm still in with Harris winning more than 53% of the vote. Given Obama got 52.9% in 2008, I'd say Harris getting 53% is optimistic


Yes, I know. Call me Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm.
rf_fozzy
rf_fozzy
13 Sep
4:54pm, 13 Sep 2024
23,058 posts
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rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote:Trump 46% in last 2 elections and currently 44% in the 538 average. "If" he only gets 44% of the vote he is toast.


But he only needs to make sure that 44% is in the states he needs it

He could get 44 nationally but lose say 2% in NH, CA, etc, and gain 2% in PA, MI, WI, Az, GA and it's Trump eith the win.

And despite arguments to the contrary earlier, it will be so much worse under a second trump term for everyone.

Climate goals for example would be ignored completely. Expect a raft of anti-renewables legislation etc. Anyone who thinks it won't be bad hasn't looked at project 2025.
Johnny Blaze
Johnny Blaze
13 Sep
5:04pm, 13 Sep 2024
33,108 posts
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Johnny Blaze
True, but directionally it's unlikely that he can see a 3 point drop overall and yet see increases in swing states, would you not say?

And it's still quite unusual that someone who loses the popular vote wins the election. Twice in recent history and the biggest margin was -2.1%. If he is on 44% he is down by at least 6 points.

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