May 2022
11:54pm, 31 May 2022
1,167 posts
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paulcook
I was trying to second guess which journalists it might have been and instead seen an interesting comparison that when May face the no confidence vote, there were 20 (of 48) letters that were made public. Supposedly 28 have gone public so far, so we're definitely in the range of enough letters already on the same extrapolation.
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Jun 2022
12:11am, 1 Jun 2022
4,742 posts
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Fields
Tuesday seems a good bet to me
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Jun 2022
12:17am, 1 Jun 2022
17,120 posts
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rf_fozzy
Chris - don't get stroppy. All I ask is to post your sources. As I asked fields, TMW, tony and everyone else of all political persuasions. Just because I disagree with your hasty assumptions, doesn't give you the right to get stroppy. Paulcook - yes and I expect that's where the "journalists" that Chris is following are extrapolating from as well. However, I think it's a false equivalence. In the TM case, the opposition to her was centred in some of the PCP groupings (e.g. ERG) and so it was easy to see that if several of the group had put letters in and stated so publicly, then there would be more. In this case, the opposition to Johnson is more diffuse and fragmented and centred on individuals, rather than groups, so any extrapolation is highly uncertain. At the moment, the poltical editors of the BBC, itv, c4, guardian, mirror and even flipping Guido Fawkes are all silent on getting to the requisite number of letters. I'm going with them. The threshold might have been reached, but it's so uncertain, speculation (including this post) is utterly pointless. And anyway, I still think it's likely he'll win a NCV and unlike May, he doesn't know how to "read the room" and will carry on regardless. |
Jun 2022
7:16am, 1 Jun 2022
18,839 posts
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richmac
theguardian.com Excellent article in the Guardian linked above to show the source, hope that's ok. Speculates on how Johnson may 'stack' a NCV in his favour.. Basically bribery if you can't be arsed to read it. Essentially give everyone plum jobs, minister or aide etc etc. Failing that promise to allow what ever mental scheme that MP has a financial interest in, it's why fracking is still in the shadows. On another note, the whole 'let's move on, people want us to tackle cost of living' narrative that was pushed at the locals seems to have been demolished when MP's spend time back in constituency talking to actual voters. |
Jun 2022
7:22am, 1 Jun 2022
27,386 posts
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Johnny Blaze
"Boris Johnson and his allies have launched an emergency effort to lobby wavering MPs as he faces the spiralling threat of a confidence vote in his leadership that could put his position under threat within days. By Tuesday night, at least 44 Tory MPs had publicly questioned Johnson’s fitness to hold office, including 18 who are known to have sent letters to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers, to formally seek a confidence vote. The remainder have openly called for the prime minister to resign or said they had lost faith in his leadership. The growing rank of public critics was joined on Tuesday by Andrea Leadsom, the former cabinet minister, saying there had been a “failure of leadership” inside No 10. Two further MPs, both of whom hold government posts and so have not spoken publicly, are also known to have submitted letters. Separately, the Guardian has seen letters to constituents or public statements from at least 35 further MPs that suggest they are openly questioning the prime minister’s future, or express deep disquiet at events in No 10 – including ex-ministers Richard Graham and Mark Garnier, and the 2019 MP Anthony Browne." Guardian So that's about 80 who are not chuffed with him, plus I'd say lobbying MPs to stay on side is also pretty suggestive. But we shall soon know, one way or another. I dare say things will go quiet tomorrow for a few days as the press loses its mind over the Jubilee. I do wonder about whether some are hanging fire until after the by-elections or the inquiry. Those people are pusillanimous twerps who are just delaying the inevitable and hoping for "something to turn up". Patiently waiting for the trolley to turn things around and start acting like he knows what he is doing. Good luck with that - there will be more coming out about the 'gate over the next few months. Nailed on. If the threshold is reached they have to answer the simple question of whether they are prepared to strike in the absence of those, because if they don't they are stuck with him till the next GE. |
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Jun 2022
7:27am, 1 Jun 2022
27,387 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Calling a GE "just" to save his skin is very "him", and indicative of what a tosser he is - we are all just cattle to him and he will use us the way he uses everybody else.
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Jun 2022
7:30am, 1 Jun 2022
18,840 posts
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richmac
Those who wait until after by elections are just cowards sleep walking towards a Johnson dictatorship. Some Tory shill on R4 this morning peddling 'the damage a change of PM would do' what a load of bollocks. Like sports teams a new coach/manager coming in after an utter failure in post often is very positive and it's what the public want. I shouldn't be pissed off at that rhetoric should I? Let them'save' Johnson and get wiped off the political map for a decade or more. |
Jun 2022
8:28am, 1 Jun 2022
3,101 posts
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B Rubble
The longer he stays, the more damage it will do to him. I think the most striking thing at the moment is how quiet Gove has been. There's going to be some serious political manoeuvring in the background with the most likely candidates protecting themselves from "doing a Heseltine". I'm starting to believe that [USER100997],[USER60675] and I might be in with a shout on the ousting poll, assuming it is the day he says he is intending to stand down. |
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Jun 2022
8:29am, 1 Jun 2022
3,102 posts
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B Rubble
Should have been a gap between Big_G and Dooogs above.
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Jun 2022
8:40am, 1 Jun 2022
1,168 posts
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paulcook
Those who wait until after by elections are just cowards sleep walking towards a Johnson dictatorship. I can see some sense in waiting until after the two bi elections since they’re only 3 weeks away now anyway. But on the flip side their always seems to be an excuse why not or wait for this, that and the other. It comes across as a group who can’t make a proper decision. |
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