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Jan 2020
12:30am, 31 Jan 2020
2,000 posts
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Canute
Raemond was much stronger in her statements that I was. A few days ago she posted a link to a thought provoking article by Ian Dunt about the implications of Brexit for trade, including some very worrying implications for Northern Ireland. While Ian Dunt’s article appeared well researched, the words he used to present his conclusions indicated a pessimistic bias. I very much want to hear an analysis of the information presented in Dunt’s article, by a person who does not have a pessimistic bias. However at this stage I am still waiting for such an analysis. I fear Raemond might tell me that my hopes are unrealistic. Nonetheless I would be very pleased to read any alternative analysis of the information presented in Dunt’s article.
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Jan 2020
6:46am, 31 Jan 2020
44,649 posts
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Diogenes
Life will carry on. Many will be worse off and have to find a new scapegoat for all their woes. I suspect it will be some other amorphous section of society that is undermining our Britishness. Splendid isolation belongs in the history books.
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Jan 2020
8:11am, 31 Jan 2020
33,055 posts
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LindsD
I'm just very sad and quite worried.
And please can we try not to be personal.
And. I'd also be happy to hear any reasoned exposition of the benefits we can now expect. From Stander or anyone. Stander, if you present your arguments in a non-emotive way with evidence to back them up, I'm sure there will be no abuse. Refusing to disclose them because of fearing abuse feels a bit like 'look over there' to me.
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Jan 2020
8:21am, 31 Jan 2020
2,399 posts
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B Rubble
In an attempt to introduce balance and try to explain what the knowledgeable leave supporters have been promoting as the reasons for Brexit, I have reproduced comments from an economist whose reports I get every 3 months. Sorry it's a bit long
"Many of my leaver friends tell me that the Boris victory and getting Brexit done will unleash a torrent of productivity enhancing inward investment. New trade deals with the growth economies in the World and the USA will create an economic boom. GDP will grow more strongly than is suggested by the likes of me. I remain to be convinced. It would be fantastic (to coin a much used word recently!) if I was totally wrong."
"2020 will be a good year, the current growth in money supply will increase and an 80 seat majority will give confidence resulting in increased velocity. I forecast real GDP will hit 2.2% by the end of 2020 but the new Governor of the Bank of England will be warning that interest rates need to rise as the inflation rate unexpectedly grows above 3%."
"The time it takes for new money to flow through the whole economy varies with the level of confidence: it can take up to two years. But I expect a significant upturn in velocity. The best indicator will be monthly house sales. They are normally around 100,000 per month: we can expect 110,000 per month by April assuming the weather is normal for the time of year. There will be price recoveries in London and the SE and average selling prices will rise by 5% across the country. The construction sector will be inundated by much needed new work as the capex buttons are pressed by finance directors. Banks will become more willing to lend. The so called Boris Bounce will happen."
What could possibly go wrong?
"The key to a continued expansion is how the UK Government chooses to manage its relations with the EU. If there is a cabinet reshuffle during which members of the ERG are demoted it will be a clear sign that Boris wants a soft Brexit. He will need this if he is to deliver his promise to the North. If we continue to match EU standards, recognise how important the EU market for services exports and promise to regulate financial services at EU standards then I anticipate a free trade deal on goods will be struck within 18 months and for our financial services sector equivalence will be granted. In most respects this will be business as usual."
"However if there is a move towards creating Singapore on Thames and a pivot to the USA then the Boris Bounce will deflate by the end of next year. My instinct is this will not happen. For example the race to the bottom on Corporation Tax will not happen. Hopefully the ERG will become a knitting club in the House of Commons and fade into oblivion. The February or March budget will give some clear messages of the intended path which I expect to be old fashioned one nation Toryism which is defined as paternalistic approach recognising that society develops organically and Government should support change but not engineer it."
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Jan 2020
8:22am, 31 Jan 2020
33,056 posts
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LindsD
Thank you
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Jan 2020
8:33am, 31 Jan 2020
6,247 posts
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jda
So basically a load of wishful thinking predicated on Johnson going back on his word yet again. Admittedly, this latter point would not be surprising in general terms but there doesn't seem to be much basis for it in this particular form.
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Jan 2020
8:54am, 31 Jan 2020
2,400 posts
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B Rubble
We all know that Johnson hasn't got any qualms with going back on his word. I'm still waiting for him to lie in front of an excavator to stop the Heathrow expansion. I would like to be the one driving it.
I'm not the biggest fan of economists, they get things wrong far too often, but at least he gives a reasoned technical argument that you can agree or disagree with.
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Jan 2020
8:56am, 31 Jan 2020
292 posts
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Stander
B Rubble - how dare you post something that is actually reasonable, relatively well balanced and includes possible positive outcomes for Brexit.
You know only negative shit is allowed in here when Brexit is discussed.
Did you not get the memo? 
Have a great day everyone.
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Jan 2020
9:00am, 31 Jan 2020
2,442 posts
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Fellrunning
So the answer is to build more houses.
That worked out well for the Irish as I recall....
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Jan 2020
9:02am, 31 Jan 2020
23,026 posts
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Johnny Blaze
"The ERG will become a knitting club." Good luck with that thought.
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