|
Dec 2019
5:15pm, 11 Dec 2019
749 posts
|
Ally-C
Kate Hoey is stepping down iirc, that's the DUP down one😀
|
|
Dec 2019
5:16pm, 11 Dec 2019
5,949 posts
|
jda
DV, how long do you actually think it will take then? Are you confident it will all be over by Christmas - 2021? Or maybe Christmas - 2022?
As for me, I am confident that brexit negotiations will outlast the next parliament. And I don't think it is at all unreasonable to expect it will dominate british politics during that period, it will be by far the most important and contentious thing going on.
"Get brexit done" indeed.
|
|
Dec 2019
5:20pm, 11 Dec 2019
1,492 posts
|
um
Only slightly tongue in cheek, if Brexit is this difficult, how long would Scottish Indepence take?
|
|
Dec 2019
5:23pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,575 posts
|
Chrisull
Cheers HowFar for the extra detail. Ok sounds like it will be a DUP gain sadly.
Ok one other thing that has entered into my head is OUR (here) tendency to read the opinion polls bottom end as being the likely outcome. Of course at the other end Survation and Opiniium have been consistently pointing to a 12-13 point lead for the Tories or more.
What if they are correct? No reason they shouldn't be. Just because it feels like Johnson is unpopular - but what happens if the KEY factor is Corbyn's unpopularity (as with Foot in 1983)? In which case it could be Tory 80 seats.
And for hints this could be happening? Well Laura K tapping somewhat dubiously into the postal votes around the country saying they are looking grim for Labour. There's a debate over whether her sources are accurate/in breach of the law/extrapolating. And we know the older demographic is more likely to postal vote, but still it's something to be aware of, just in case Stander pops upn on the 13th going HAHAHA 83 seats majority, I told you so!
|
|
Dec 2019
5:27pm, 11 Dec 2019
36,608 posts
|
Ding Derby merrily on Tup
I can see a 60 to 80 Tory majority happening. Corbyn is utterly toxic
|
|
Dec 2019
5:38pm, 11 Dec 2019
13,578 posts
|
HowFar?
Chris - the thing is, Lady Harmon was Pro-Remain so some of the people who voted for her may transfer their votes to Alliance rather than DUP or UUP. I think the twitter post that was linked on the previous page had DUP and Alliance reasonably close (something like 46% chance of a win for DUP v 43% chance of a win for Alliance)
|
|
Dec 2019
5:53pm, 11 Dec 2019
5,950 posts
|
jda
Scexit will take a long time, but fortunately there is no rush, no thresholds or cliff edges, no deadlines. Indeed you may consider the process to already have started some time ago 
|
|
Dec 2019
5:57pm, 11 Dec 2019
540 posts
|
zp
Please jda, use the correct terminology: Scotch Eggxit, not Scexit
|
|
Dec 2019
5:58pm, 11 Dec 2019
5,951 posts
|
jda
That would make a great brexit, I mean breakfast.
|
|
Dec 2019
6:06pm, 11 Dec 2019
1,322 posts
|
GeneHunt59
Have stayed up through the night on election night every GE since 1979, but this time will head for bed not long after the exit polls are released. Expect a solid Tory majority, but expected the same at last election and was surprised.
|
