Dec 2019
4:44pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,570 posts
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Chrisull
Using local elections to predict the final general election. Who needs MRP , tens of thousands of responders and loads of money it seems? This is one set of predictions to keep an eye on, using local elections as the predictors, which have (as explained in the link below), been good predictors in 2015 and 2017 of the final outcome. Con 40.8 36 38.4 4 329 Lab 33.8 29 31.4 4 231 LD 13.4 15.4 14.4 4 23 Other 12 19.6 15.8 4 65 If the above is at all accurate, it may catch on. electionsetc.com |
Dec 2019
4:46pm, 11 Dec 2019
47 posts
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Daft Vader
Chris. My understanding is that the hierarchy mostly hate Corbyn but that he has massive support at the bottom level - i.e. amongst the actual labour members that have the final vote. I've always felt that the Corbyn leadership is a reflection of the Brexit vote itself in that the sitting MP's - by and large - not wanting to pay heed to want the voters voted for. |
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Dec 2019
4:47pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,571 posts
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Chrisull
Sorry missed the table header: Party Forecast share based on 2018 results Forecast share based on 2019 results Average forecast share Standard Error of share forecast Seats forecast |
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Dec 2019
4:49pm, 11 Dec 2019
48 posts
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Daft Vader
Those predictions above would give a tory majority of around 15-20 assuming Sinn Fein retain some seats.
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Dec 2019
4:50pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,572 posts
|
Chrisull
DV - Yes and no. Certainly most of the Corbyn enthusiasts I know are now ready to vote him out. Like most aspects of life, I suspect that people like backing winners and ditch losers quickly, and now that Corbyn is proving unpopular with the public and crucially unable to win a general election, that support will drop dramatically. He beat Owen Smith 62/38, and given Owen Smith was a bit of a nothing candidate (and has since stepped down as an mp), and that was during the peak of Corbyn-mania, I suggest a serious candidate (such as Starmer) would pose a much sterner test.
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Dec 2019
4:51pm, 11 Dec 2019
49 posts
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Daft Vader
You are probably right there Chris.
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Dec 2019
4:57pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,573 posts
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Chrisull
DV - Northern Ireland predictions here: twitter.com Overall polls say: DUP gain one seat and lose one seat Sinn Fein lose one seat SDLP gain two seats (remember SDLP are Labour's sister party and will side with them in the Commons). Best case DUP lose one seat Not much changes but in the event of a hung Parliament, it could mean an extra 2 or 3 votes Labour's way. |
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Dec 2019
4:58pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,574 posts
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Chrisull
The DUP gain would be at the expense of the independent Hermon...
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Dec 2019
5:03pm, 11 Dec 2019
27,182 posts
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macca 53
Final bit of canvassing finished - it will be a close run thing 🤞
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Dec 2019
5:12pm, 11 Dec 2019
13,577 posts
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HowFar?
Chrisull - Lady Harmon, who was an independent MP for North Down, decided not to stand for election this time. It should be a safe Unionist seat, that may well be picked up by DUP. SF and SDLP have stood aside to allow the Alliance party to contest the seat for those who want an anti Brexit candidate.
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