|
Dec 2019
1:11pm, 11 Dec 2019
8,300 posts
|
simbil
As the FT pointed out, a small Tory majority could be the worst outcome as Bojo won’t be able to ignore the ERG types and will have to plough a hard right furrow rather than pivot to moderate.
|
|
Dec 2019
1:13pm, 11 Dec 2019
2,555 posts
|
HappyTimes
Bazoaxe I find it an awful period in time, but I think similar to yourself I want a clearer government (even if it's one I don't like) so we can at least see some movement in one direction or other. Last 3 years been ... Well insert any number of disappointing words or combination there off
|
|
Dec 2019
1:13pm, 11 Dec 2019
814 posts
|
Roberto
I'm still hopeful of a hung parliament. Even a small con majority isnt the end of the world if there are enough moderates elected in the party.
However, get to 40 seat majority and concerns raise massively. Really hoping they have underestimated the youth vote.
|
|
Dec 2019
1:32pm, 11 Dec 2019
20,168 posts
|
TRO Saracen
I'm predicting sliver of a Con majority - 1-10. That tight. So many variables going in - weather impact on turnout, extent of youthquake etc. I think these things are most likely to break against the Tories.
Tactical voting will surely be outside of poll predictions in that it'll rear up in some places and not materialise in others. As Brexit Party has melted away generally and thus likely factored in, this is likely to be mostly remain benefitting tactical voting that confounds polls.
Also think the traditional 'shy Tory' is now gone, Brexit/Boris/Trump etc seems to have made them less shy so to speak.
I've always found a lag, ergo last polls predicting a trend, it is usually an exaggerated version of that trend that materialises on the day.
Only shame is that the 'Exit' poll has proved so reliable lately that any 'drama' will be individual Portillo moments rather than an unexpected story emerging over a number of hours.
|
|
Dec 2019
1:41pm, 11 Dec 2019
2,401 posts
|
Fellrunning
Whichever way we dance around this particular handbag BoJo will still be PM on Friday morning.
|
|
Dec 2019
1:44pm, 11 Dec 2019
36 posts
|
Daft Vader
Why are so many in here after a hung parliament?
Irrespective of your viewpoint, has the last three years not shown us that nothing gets done with a hung parliament. Domestic policy or Brexit.
Or is this the last hopes of dying men desperately clinging to the wreckage of a no brexit lifeboat that sank a while ago?
|
|
Dec 2019
1:48pm, 11 Dec 2019
3,393 posts
|
mr d
Hi TRO, I think a couple of elections ago they decided there weren't shy Tories, just Tories that weren't being polled.
I will try and dig up the article, but it was indicating to get a poll of 1000, they attempted to contact over 10,000.
Polling is improving, but demographic voting shifts play havoc with their models.
If they were shy about it the last place they'd admit it was outside a polling station.
|
|
Dec 2019
1:56pm, 11 Dec 2019
189 posts
|
TommyK
My tuppence worth.
Friday will see a Conservative Government without an overall majority.
Labour will jettison Corbyn and elect a, broadly, more publicly acceptable leader.
Within a year we'll be back at the polls and Labour will be the largest party.
|
|
Dec 2019
1:56pm, 11 Dec 2019
33,632 posts
|
Merry Christmas & Happy New G(rrr)
No, sorry but completely disagree with you, HT and Bazo. A hung parliament is *infinitely better* than a Tory majority. Majority of MPs will prevent No Deal Brexit. Tories won't. In order to decide how to proceed, a 2nd Ref would likely be necessary. Chance of Brexit cancelled. Massively better.  G
|
|
Dec 2019
1:58pm, 11 Dec 2019
33,633 posts
|
Merry Christmas & Happy New G(rrr)
Not bothering to address the answer to DV, for obvious reasons! G
|
