Dec 2019
11:00am, 11 Dec 2019
35 posts
|
Daft Vader
Yes, I agree JDA, that the 31st January exit isn't the actual exit and that this happens end of 2020, but again (respectfully), I disagree with your assertion that we are negotiating from scratch. We have 40 years of running comparative standards, rules and regulations. It's not like usual trade agreements that take years to get those alignment. Which is what ticks me off when it gets reported that X agreement between A and B took 4 million years to conclude. A and B didn't start from the exactly the same place, unlike the UK and the EU. |
Dec 2019
11:05am, 11 Dec 2019
9,281 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Actually it's harder because we are starting from the same place. We have 40 years of running comparative standards, rules and regulations. And we want to *diverge* from that - yet retain the same access..... Spot the problem. So, yes it's definitely not like usual trade agreeements where you start from far apart and work to get closer together and work out what you will give and take to get an agreement. So, as the trade experts like David Henig (TTIP) and others have been saying for a *long* time. It is harder. And there's very little chance of it being done by Jan 2020. And actually it's worse because it actually needs to be done by June 2020. Because that's the date we need to ask for an extension. Also unlike the WA, this would be a new treaty with the EU and therefore needs ratification by all member states and regional parls..... In 1 year. That last part held TTIP up for over a year..... |
|
Dec 2019
11:07am, 11 Dec 2019
9,282 posts
|
rf_fozzy
And for the "Boris is a great negotiator -look you said he'd never get a new WA" groupies, I say wake up and smell the Brexit shit. He didn't negotiate a "new" WA. He simply capitualated and agreed to an even shitter deal that had been on the table 18months previously and TM turned it down as it was too shit even for her. (and threw NI under the bus) |
Dec 2019
11:37am, 11 Dec 2019
9,738 posts
|
larkim
I'm gaining snippets of home from the latest yougov MRP poll which suggests my constituency has drifted Labour's way a little with a prediction for a narrow Labour win. yougov.co.uk Here's a fun game though - the graphic with the constituencies show in hexagons is clickable to show which constitency it is. It's utterly bizarre in where it places certain ones. For example Stretford, Worsley and Wigan are all apparently on the coast! And the two neighbouring constituences of Weaver Vale and Halton are apparently separated by several hundred miles! |
Dec 2019
11:44am, 11 Dec 2019
5,944 posts
|
jda
As fozzy says, it's harder, and it's specifically harder because there is no clear outline of how much divergence the UK desires, nor how much easy access. It's still pie in the sky. And unless and until that is debated and agreed (not least within the Tories themselves) there will be a succession of cliff edges and extensions and it will dominate parliament for ever and a day. Which is why I will laugh in the face of anyone gullible enough to fall for the "get Brexit done" lie. |
Dec 2019
11:48am, 11 Dec 2019
3,919 posts
|
Raemond
It neatly glosses over the fact that major obstacle so far has been the fact that the various shades of leavers can't agree amongst themselves how they want to go, yet somehow have still managed to blame it on some sort of 'remoaner sabotage.'
|
|
Dec 2019
11:54am, 11 Dec 2019
9,283 posts
|
rf_fozzy
That, jda, is the entire problem, from Day 1, of Brexit. The refusal to openly discuss and come to a consensus of what Brexit should look like. At any stage. Because as soon as you do, the pile of shit it actually is becomes clear. Larkim - There's still some odd results in that YouGov MRP model. They've got NW Leeds as safe lab, but it's always been a Lab-LD marginal - partly due to huge student population in that constituency. Lab only took the constituency in 2017 and it's a heavily remain area. Is Yougov underestimating/underweighting the 18-40 age group? They've also got Norman Lamb losing his seat in North Norfolk which seems a bit odd. |
Dec 2019
11:57am, 11 Dec 2019
24,922 posts
|
Wriggling Snake
That yougov poll looks high for labour, awful for LDs if it happens.
|
|
Dec 2019
11:59am, 11 Dec 2019
9,284 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Ah, my bad. Norman Lamb not standing, so they've assumed no incumbency assistance. Still they've voted Lib Dem since 2001.... |
Dec 2019
12:04pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,564 posts
|
Chrisull
fozzy - there was an article on there possible being an mathematical built in bias (not political) that meant YouGov's voters were older and Leavier than the average. Here it is : blogs.lse.ac.uk I'd agree the MRP seems out of whack, with what seems to be the word on the ground in some places. You have North Norfolk, here I'd say St Ives. |
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Oct 2024
-
Economics
Aug 2023
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018
