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11:21am
11:21am, 10 Oct 2024
22,234 posts
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Chrisull
Apart from those who actually lost loved ones. When deaths are involved, people tend to be less forgiving for the partying (which is pretty much what did him in). He torched his popularity with the red wall then and then. He might gain new voters, but it's hard to win back old. I suspect if Gordon Brown came back for Labour, he'd find it difficult to gain back ground as well.
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11:21am
11:21am, 10 Oct 2024
33,223 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Past performance predicts future performance. This is a fact.
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11:24am
11:24am, 10 Oct 2024
33,224 posts
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Johnny Blaze
No arguments on this please or I shall have to refer the house to multivariate logistic regression.
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11:24am
11:24am, 10 Oct 2024
46,381 posts
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SPR
See Trump...
People forget easily. I agree what did him in, I just think people have short memories.
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11:25am
11:25am, 10 Oct 2024
33,225 posts
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Johnny Blaze
How it works
The statistical program calculates the baseline odds of an outcome, then enters the chosen variables into the model. The program then calculates a regression coefficient and "P" value for each variable. The "P" value indicates whether the variable contributes significantly to the outcome.
When to use it
Multivariate logistic regression can be used to:
Identify patient characteristics associated with an outcome
Determine the effect of a procedure on an outcome
Adjust for differences between groups to compare treatment strategies
Develop risk-prediction models
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11:26am
11:26am, 10 Oct 2024
46,382 posts
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SPR
But to be clear, it's if people are unhappy with Labour. He knows how to do populism but the environment has to be ripe for it to succeed.
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11:39am
11:39am, 10 Oct 2024
25,775 posts
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larkim
The Left didn't undo Johnson last time, of course, that took his own party to achieve. So it's not impossible that he'd be able to reconstruct a narrative that allowed him back if the current direction of travel fails.
To do that though he'd have to be simmering in the background in a way which was different to the Jenrick / Badenoch direction, and I don't think they'll give him the space on the right to allow him to present an alternative to them. It's not impossible though; he starts to present himself as the moderate alternative to them (if their approach proves unpopular with the electorate), despite being nothing of the sort.
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11:42am
11:42am, 10 Oct 2024
46,385 posts
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SPR
The point with Boris Johnson is he'll be what he thinks he needs to be which is what populism is. If he doesn't think moving right is the solution he won't move in that direction. Lots of people here have said that isn't the right way to go.
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11:43am
11:43am, 10 Oct 2024
22,235 posts
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Chrisull
Yeah but name on politician in UK politics that has been completely discredited, lost popularity and managed to come back from it.
I think in Italy Berlusconi is about the only example I can think of, and even then it's more a case of fragmentation and no party being able to command enough votes to rule.
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11:49am
11:49am, 10 Oct 2024
33,226 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I dare say you are right, but there's a big difference between the UK electorate and the halfwitted Con party electorate. He would win with the latter but the former is a more situational question.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
