11:51am
11:51am, 10 Oct 2024
22,236 posts
|
Chrisull
And I don't think Trump is coming back, I think Harris has this. Narrowly, but the signs (in amongst the noise) are good. Trump hasn't expanded his support. Harris just has to get out the Dems. And in voter registrations in Pennsylvania alone, they are rocketing, and in early voting she's winning 73-19 (which isn't always reliable, but does serve as an indicator - especially as Trump - in contrast to 2020 - is now urging his voters to get out early, and vote mailins - as the tactic will be get ahead, then call the state in his favour). What can change is a last minute gaffe from Harris, or an October surprise, but as things stand, breathe.... |
11:54am
11:54am, 10 Oct 2024
33,227 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
I agree, but I still think the fish isn't *quite* in the pan. I expect chaos if he loses.
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12:08pm
12:08pm, 10 Oct 2024
28,417 posts
|
TROSaracen
I’m less comfortable than you guys. In 2016 Hilary was up 4 in the polls, which turned to up 1 in votes cast but an EC loss. In 2020 Biden was up 7.9 in polls, which turned into up 4 in votes cast and the EC win could have been reversed with 40,000 votes in razor thin swing states. So Trump outperforms polls and outperforms national vote in EC based on 2 elections. You can ignore the mid terms etc as Trump was not even nominee, let alone on the ballot. This weeks media blitz has some Kamala gaffes and some of the union votes have shown she’s not going down well in the blue collar unionised rust belt communities (see Teamsters politico.com So whilst some good signs there remain worries and concerns unless you really are in an echo chamber. |
12:11pm
12:11pm, 10 Oct 2024
25,776 posts
|
larkim
I am pessimistic about Harris. That momentum has dissipated. We lap up every report of Trump making a fool of himself because that's what we want to hear. Polling suggests it is too close for any comfort at all, and some momentum seems to be building to return his support in place.
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12:22pm
12:22pm, 10 Oct 2024
28,418 posts
|
TROSaracen
Exactly Larkim, it’s very easy to immerse yourself in a world where Harris is strolling to victory, no problem at all. It’s probably very easy to find a world where Trump is doing the same. It’s the way of media, and social media these days. If you can get balanced input you can sense momentum shifts amongst the shrieking noise. And it does feel as if she’s lost momentum and is grasping to regain it. Hence this week’s media blitz. Pressure was all on Trump a few weeks back, he was getting scratchy and making mistakes. The debate looked to have swung it our way quite firmly. Hard to put a finger on where it’s going wrong but it’s not feeling great. |
12:37pm
12:37pm, 10 Oct 2024
1,487 posts
|
EarlyRiser
It's all down to the ground-game in those 6 or 7 states. The Dems have more money to burn and as I understand it, more people on the ground. They just have to work their socks off and all will be good...
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12:51pm
12:51pm, 10 Oct 2024
29,611 posts
|
richmac
Why would anyone vote for Johnson? He has a suspension from the HoC to serve so you'd have no representation for a while
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12:52pm
12:52pm, 10 Oct 2024
46,386 posts
|
SPR
Re Johnson, he's polarising so could come back in the right circumstances: yougov.co.uk
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1:21pm
1:21pm, 10 Oct 2024
5,645 posts
|
J2R
Don't forget, last time round he was never anything like as popular as the mythologizing suggests. He was very much a construct of the right wing press, endlessly boosting him. Unless they did the same thing next time round, I think things could be very different. He did, genuinely, have a little charisma about him, though, repellent as it might be, which is something I cannot say for Jenrick, who in many ways is similar, being willing to say or do anything which boosts his career and being without any apparent real guiding ideology. I'll say this for Badenoch, I think she is genuinely as vicious and deranged as her image suggests, it's not just pretence to get the Tory members' votes. |
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1:30pm
1:30pm, 10 Oct 2024
25,777 posts
|
larkim
Yep, can't imagine Badenoch (every time I type that name the jokes just make themselves, as trivial as that thought is) and Jenrick being guests on HIGNFY. Even if that shouldn't be a barometer of charisma, it was definitely part of the way Johnson leaked into the public consciousness as "someone you could have a laugh with", however flawed that looks in hindsight. Even that popularity tracker shows he was only at 40% in October 2020, so 33% now is not that far down. |
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