3:08pm
3:08pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,228 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I believe a NY Times poll has it that 9% of republicans will vote for Harris vs 6% for Biden in 2020. Seems thin.. However, I think - or perhaps it is just tht I hope - that a large number of Americans are simply exhausted by him, and they want rid of him. I think she wins but the polls have it so close he could still take it. We shall see. |
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3:13pm
3:13pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,229 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Polls also fail to account for "the enthusiasm factor" and boots on the ground. Both seem to be very heavily in favour of Harris and the Dems. The US has only one shot at this. They need a landslide, ideally. Who knows what's going to happen. It's a fair bet they will be in a mess come November. |
3:39pm
3:39pm, 10 Oct 2024
22,239 posts
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Chrisull
The issue with elections is that people change their minds between polling and final voting. They don't though. If you have decided, you are very unlikely to change. I was gonna vote Trump last week, now I'm voting Harris. Yeah it happens, but really not common. It's the undecideds who change. Hence the targetting in the UK election of the red wall who had loads of undecideds. In the UK election too you had Greens, Lib Dems and people switched last moment depending on whether they thought Labour was safe and they could protest. In the US there isn't the equivalent. Yes registered Republicans will vote Democrat, but the evidence is they have already decided to do that. |
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3:43pm
3:43pm, 10 Oct 2024
22,240 posts
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Chrisull
(This excludes nuclear level gaffes - but there is a whole swathe of evidence that was made public in this years UL elections that shows between the start of an election campaign and the end of one, virtually nothing changes - there were 3 exceptions in the last 100 years, and even then they were "arguable" such as 2015 - which you could argue was polling "error")
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3:45pm
3:45pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,194 posts
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rf_fozzy
If the polls are right, then it's a coin flip election. Pure 50-50 - which is terrifying in itself. It's down to turnout probably. That maybe slightly favours Harris, but I buy the 538 position that says 53-47% *chance* to Harris (<- NOT vote share!!). Nate Silver apparently has Trump slight favourite. NYT has it about 50/50 too. And don't read anything into early voting either - doesn't mean anything and decent pollsters should take it into account which then factors into the models like the 538 one. |
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3:45pm
3:45pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,230 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Trump got a big turnout last time but still only 46% of the vote like in 2016. And then came Jan 6th. He may simply not get the turnout this time and if so he will get a good shoeing. |
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3:47pm
3:47pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,231 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I'm still saying 53%+ for harris. I have seen it.
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3:52pm
3:52pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,195 posts
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rf_fozzy
Trump can still win even if Harris gets 52% of the popular vote. See the popular vote vs electoral college plot on the 538 model page: projects.fivethirtyeight.com |
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4:10pm
4:10pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,196 posts
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rf_fozzy
538's forecast has the Republicans holding the house (just) too - although that's also a coin flip. It's likely the Republicans will take control of the Senate. |
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4:10pm
4:10pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,197 posts
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rf_fozzy
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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