4:59pm
4:59pm, 10 Oct 2024
25,781 posts
|
larkim
Tory Reform Group publicly declared support for "none of the above". And not because it can't choose between two excellent candidates.... A bold move, given it's members will soon have to pledge fealty to one of the two. The centrists aren't quite as good at tearing the party apart as the RW nutjobs are, but they are setting out their stall already. |
5:01pm
5:01pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,236 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
As a matter of fact it was the Bulwark Podcast, who are much closer to polling, polling cross-tabs and focus groups than you or I will ever be. Funnily enough I do not have the time or the energy to analyse 538's methodologies and I doubt you have either, but I have had plenty of experience of statistical modelling and all models are only as good as the data that goes in and the assumptions made and applied by the modellers - so I added a caveat, which you have actually agreed with, but as usual you get on your high horse. I can see you are being cantankerous again so I'm bowing out. |
5:03pm
5:03pm, 10 Oct 2024
46,390 posts
|
SPR
They won't have to swear fealty, they just won't have any top jobs. That's quite fine if they believe neither of these two is likely to succeed in the medium term.
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5:06pm
5:06pm, 10 Oct 2024
46,391 posts
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SPR
Of course, depending on how the party treats them, they might end up without the whip. They will need to be some controversial vote where they feel they can't vote with the party to force that in all likelihood.
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5:09pm
5:09pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,204 posts
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rf_fozzy
The Bulwark, as former Republican political operatives and voters, are not neutral in the argument though. Tim Miller et al have significant skin in the game - and they have been bullish on Harris for a while. Partly out of their complete dislike for Trump. Thus they have a tendency to underestimate some factors. And overinflate others. I'm not denying the model could be wrong. But all the models are showing virtually the same thing - a coin flip election. There's no obvious reason to doubt them at the moment. The polls, which go into the models, are saying the same thing. Yes, they also could be wrong, but it's not as simple as saying in 2020 they missed this way by this and in 2022 they did this and so it means the polls are wrong this way in 2024. Absent other information, we have to assume the polls are correct. I'm on no high horse - I'm just presenting the logical argument based on the available evidence I have. If there's other evidence to consider, then I'll listen and I may change my mind, but there's been none presented. |
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5:27pm
5:27pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,205 posts
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rf_fozzy
Here is the section of the Bulwark podcast to which JB alluded to above: |
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5:31pm
5:31pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,206 posts
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rf_fozzy
It's a plausible theory, but it's based on the comments of a single pollster and their polls. I tend to trust the poll averages more because the experts tell me thats what to do. Also MoE on state polls > national polls So maybe this is correct, but I'd need more evidence and for it to start showing up in the models to buy it |
5:53pm
5:53pm, 10 Oct 2024
9,519 posts
|
Pothunter
Just had the pleasure of telling a Tory canvasser that I won’t be voting for them in the upcoming local election. You may remember I said before I was undecided and worried by the overall Labour majority. I’ve since met the new Labour candidate at parkrun of all places. He’s a local GP and a remainer so he’s going to get my vote. (He’s also got a 15:xx PB over 5k!) |
6:18pm
6:18pm, 10 Oct 2024
6,661 posts
|
paulcook
Returning to a previous discussion, Israel now firing at UN peacekeepers on foreign soil. Quite how you even begin to justify that is beyond me.
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6:22pm
6:22pm, 10 Oct 2024
29,619 posts
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richmac
paulcook wrote: Returning to a previous discussion, Israel now firing at UN peacekeepers on foreign soil. Quite how you even begin to justify that is beyond me. FML if the unifil guys fire back, what does that mean Israel ? War with the UN? |
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