4:11pm
4:11pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,232 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Yes, I appreciate that. It's all down to the swing states, but I have heard some talk that Trump's overall number is flattered by the fact he is up in some very populous blue states like NY and Calfornia. So... who knows. I'm just going with my gut on this. The anti-Trump coalition is fired by Roe and Democracy and it's even dragging in more Republicans. There is hope. Eowyn Harris will smite the bloated Orange Witch-King. It is certain. "Begone, foul dwimmerlaik, lord of carrion! Leave the dead in peace!" A cold voice answered: "Come not between the Nazgul and his prey! Or he will not slay thee in they turn. He will bear thee away to the houses of lamentation, beyond all darkness, where they flesh shall be devoured, and they shrivelled mind be left naked to the Lidless Eye." A sword rang as it was drawn. "Do what you will; but I will hinder it, if I may." "Hinder me? Thou fool. No living man may hinder me!" Then Merry heard of all sounds in that hour the strangest. It seemed that Dernhelm laughed, and the clear voice was like the ring of steel. "But no living man am I! You look upon a woman. Eowyn I am, Eomund's daughter. You stand between me and my lord and kin. Begone, if you be not deathless! For living or dark undead, I will smite you, if you touch him." |
4:12pm
4:12pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,198 posts
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rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: but I have heard some talk that Trump's overall number is flattered by the fact he is up in some very populous blue states like NY and Calfornia. Erm. No. It's the other way round. |
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4:16pm
4:16pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,233 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Really? I'm happy to be convinced otherwise, but he seems to have made substantial ground in NY and California vs Biden in 2020 for example. I don't see him getting more than 46%. I'd bet a tenner he won't. |
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4:28pm
4:28pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,199 posts
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rf_fozzy
California in 2020 was 63 - 34% 538 median scenario for 2024 is 62 - 37 (doesn't include 3rd party candidates) New York in 2020 was 60.8 - 37.7 538 median for 59 - 41 (again no 3rd party candidates). So maybe small gains, but not that it skews the polls massively. He might well get 46%, but that could well be enough for him to win. Currently 538 has him on 48% |
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4:36pm
4:36pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,234 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Their polling average is telling me 45.9%, so we are obviously looking in different places... projects.fivethirtyeight.com |
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4:38pm
4:38pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,200 posts
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rf_fozzy
That's the actual polling average which has a % as DKs It's not the modelled polling average which is what I was talking about (i.e. the predicted result) So that I can compare to the actual results from 2020. |
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4:41pm
4:41pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,201 posts
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rf_fozzy
The point is that there is no evidence that Trump has significant numbers of voters in NY and CA that would then offset the national polling average suggesting that PA, MI, WI etc polls are therefore over estimating Trump's chances in the swing states.
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4:49pm
4:49pm, 10 Oct 2024
33,235 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Ah, right. I take your point. Although I should add the caveat that models are like most things statistical - bullshit in, bullshit out. We shall see. I suppose it is tempting to think that there is simply no way people can look at Trump's mental state and his litany of crimes and suppose that anyone could possibly vote him in again. But that is clearly misunderstanding how deeply red-pilled and polarised the US electorate has become. This is one of those occasions when I am going to put my trust in people. Harris is a good candidate who has exceeded expectations given her late entry to the race. Trump is an awful candidate whose mental decline is evident. I think at the very last that will count. Nikki Haley said that the first party to ditch their 80 year old candidate will win and I think there's a lot of truth in that. If it *doesn't* count and they vote him back in, they - and we - will reap what they sow. they can't say they weren't warned. |
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4:52pm
4:52pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,202 posts
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rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: Ah, right. I take your point. Although I should add the caveat that models are like most things statistical - bullshit in, bullshit out. We shall see. Of course the model could be incorrect. And the polls could be wrong. But it was you who asserted that they were incorrect because of a change in vote proportion in NY and CA. Without any evidence. If you think the models are wrong, then I'd be happy to hear your criticism.... But if it's what Dave said down the pub based on what some bloke said on twix, then I know which I will be believing. |
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4:56pm
4:56pm, 10 Oct 2024
23,203 posts
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rf_fozzy
Another marginal thing to remember in the mix is that the following states have lost one EV: CA, MI, NY, IL, PA (all voted D in 2020) and OH and WV (voted R) And the following states have gained EVs: TX +2 (voted R in 2020) MT, FL, NC (voted R) and OR, CO (voted D). which means even if all states vote the same way as they did in 2020, then Harris would win, but the Ds would be down by 5 EVs to start with.... |
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