2:09pm
2:09pm, 10 Oct 2024
46,387 posts
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SPR
Starmer peaks at 33% yougov.co.uk |
2:14pm
2:14pm, 10 Oct 2024
29,612 posts
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richmac
Yes Johnson did have little charisma & is witty in a limited way but the same could be said for Bernard Manning
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2:16pm
2:16pm, 10 Oct 2024
46,388 posts
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SPR
It's not this thread that would vote for him and this thread probably said the same about him for the last 5 years and more.
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2:18pm
2:18pm, 10 Oct 2024
25,778 posts
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larkim
richmac wrote: Yes Johnson did have little charisma & is witty in a limited way but the same could be said for Bernard Manning With hindsight, that's true. But I expect I'm not the only one who watched HIGNFY back in the day and enjoyed his buffoon character on there, not imagining the harm it would do in the future. |
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2:20pm
2:20pm, 10 Oct 2024
46,389 posts
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SPR
He might have done a decent job as London mayor as well. I've not looked into it in any detail though.
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2:21pm
2:21pm, 10 Oct 2024
25,779 posts
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larkim
He first appeared in 1998 and then 1999, both before he became an MP. Then once more in 2001 as an MP as a guest, before hosting it 4 times in 2002 through to 2006. His "character" was being formed in the public consciousness for a good while. |
2:47pm
2:47pm, 10 Oct 2024
22,237 posts
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Chrisull
I’m less comfortable than you guys. Fully understand TRO. But I don't think it's 2016 again. Pollsters have changed their methodology, so in the 2022 mid terms they'd actually overweighted republicans. They haven't altered this on the grounds that the mid terms saw paraphrasing "energised local voting that you don't get in a general election", but basically since Roe vs Wade was overturned there are two phenomenons. One is "Roe rage" wherever abortion is on the card - as it is in swing state Arizona, the polls have failed to capture massive swings to the Democrats. (in 2022 they were predicting a red wave, not only did GOP lose the Senate, they did far worse in the house). Two is "Shy women" - this is recorded phenomenon where wives are telling their husbands they are voting Trump, and then voting Harris or telling pollsters they intend to vote Harris but not to inform their husbands. The second is of course anecdotal, I accept. However some places are reporting between 5-8% of registered Republicans actually voting Democrat. (Not sure how they know this... can anyone enlighten?) |
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2:54pm
2:54pm, 10 Oct 2024
22,238 posts
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Chrisull
Also thirdly the polls (as Carl Allen points out) are NOT predictive, they are merely snapshots of a small subsection of current sentiment and can be very bouncy (as any stats graduate will tell you it depends on the sample). The closer the polls reach 50%, the more they will resemble the final outcome, as undecideds firm up their vote. In 2016, there were huge amounts of undecided right up until election day, and Clintons leads were like 46-42, and Trump had easily the room to gin ground. Harris is polling much closer to 48, which gives Trump far less wriggle room, even if all undecideds break for him. But basically Allen says polls can't predict which way undecided voters will go, and therefore can't be used as predictive tools. The current snapshot tells us that Harris is ahead, and with a smaller amount of undecideds than 2016. There are only 7 states that are truly swing ones, I'd say despite some Florida excitement I don't see enough their for Harris. Historically swing states will usually go all one way or the other (as in UK general elections). At this moment, I'd rather be in Harris' shoes. |
2:57pm
2:57pm, 10 Oct 2024
6,660 posts
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paulcook
SPR wrote: It's not this thread that would vote for him and this thread probably said the same about him for the last 5 years and more. Quite. Almost any opinions here are irrelevant. It’s more acknowledging that he is voted for and similar more relevant ilks (ie Starmer and McSweeney) to work out battle plan if ever relevant. I’d suggest Starmer would fear Johnson more than either Badenoch or Jenrick for starters. |
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3:00pm
3:00pm, 10 Oct 2024
25,780 posts
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larkim
Chrisull wrote: Also thirdly the polls (as Carl Allen points out) are NOT predictive, they are merely snapshots of a small subsection of current sentiment and can be very bouncy (as any stats graduate will tell you it depends on the sample). Surely stats graduates will tell you that if you follow basic sampling formulae and ensure you have a representative sample, the outcome is reliable within a margin of error. The issue with elections is that people change their minds between polling and final voting. |
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