Dec 2019
12:05pm, 11 Dec 2019
10,286 posts
|
Markymarkmark
Feels like the LDs peaked a bit early to me. They're trying very hard in terms of weight of paper through my door. And they've put an andvertising "wrap" around the York Press today - "Only LibDems can beat Conservative in York Outer". Trouble is that contradicts every other poll and tactical voting site I can see. Conservative incumbent makes hardly any reference to Conservative Party or national issues in his literature, mostly "what I will do"at a local level. And lost of slagging off of the others. Labour - lots of slagging off of the others. And headine national policies, but no local stuff! Who do I like least? Which candidate actually stands the best chance of beating them? Rubbish choices all round.  But I will vote. |
Dec 2019
12:05pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,565 posts
|
Chrisull
WS - The final YouGov poll in 2017 underestimated the Tories by about 15 seats, despite it being the best one. It could be high yes. But direction of movement is definitely there and it's going Labour way. Johnson hiding in fridges today isn't going to help them either. |
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Dec 2019
12:07pm, 11 Dec 2019
15,566 posts
|
Chrisull
fozzy - also scroll down to point 5 on my last link, for the interesting bits on older Brexity types being over-represented.
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Dec 2019
12:14pm, 11 Dec 2019
10,287 posts
|
Markymarkmark
This is different.... yorkpress.co.uk Not sure if he's seeking publicity for his tools or whether it's actually good view! |
Dec 2019
12:15pm, 11 Dec 2019
11,634 posts
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Cerrertonia
Hard to imagine any previous British Prime Minister hiding in a fridge.
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Dec 2019
12:17pm, 11 Dec 2019
11,635 posts
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Cerrertonia
The data mining chap has Caroline Lucas losing her seat in Brighton, while YouGov have it as one of the safest in the country, so I suspect publicity.
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Dec 2019
12:17pm, 11 Dec 2019
9,285 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Chris - thanks - see also this: twitter.com I do wonder if in order to recalibrate from 2015/2017 the pollsters have overcalibrated? Or is that me just wishful thinking. I guess we'll find out at 10.01 tomorrow night when the BBC releases it's exit poll - that has a habit of being v accurate. |
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Dec 2019
12:19pm, 11 Dec 2019
9,286 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Caroline Lucas is one of the most popular MPs in the country especially in her constiuency. There's no chance she's losing her seat. No data supports that. |
Dec 2019
12:19pm, 11 Dec 2019
9,740 posts
|
larkim
My fingers are well and truly crossed for the "youthquake" impact being under-represented in most polls. The clarity on Brexit by Johnson is definitely helping keep the Tory vote robust, but I have been surprised by the arch-remain angle of the LDs has not played well at all throughout the campaign - I think at the start they really believed that the 50:50 leave / remain split would boost their vote immensely at Labour's expense. Bojo not having a good final few days though. Corbyn just has to surive to the close of busienss withhout any massive cockups, he can't really make any positive inroads now. I wonder what the papers will bring tomorrow? There are usually some entertaining headlines in the RW tabloids. |
Dec 2019
12:24pm, 11 Dec 2019
24,924 posts
|
Wriggling Snake
I'll be watching the bookies prices closely, not yougov. Anyhow, I rather unluckily have the telly on and there is a pollster guy there saying 18% of the Tory vote is Remain WtaF? That ties is, if it is correct, with the fact that I still don't believe this idea that remain is winning, the leave vote always seem more vehement and as solid as it ever was. Lots of LD leaflets here too, mainly don't vote Tory rather than what they would do, but it looks like it is quite close. I don't want to, because locally she is a pretty good candidate, obviously LDs untrustworthy if they get anywhere near power, but there you go, if it keeps a Tory our so be it. |
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