Dec 2019
2:46pm, 2 Dec 2019
22,942 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Town hustings tonight. I have submitted a question about a new homeless centre. I don't expect to be called up. Our local MP is probably in favour of the homeless being used for ballast in supertankers or something.
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Dec 2019
9:20pm, 2 Dec 2019
1,755 posts
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I saw mummy kissing Pothunter
Playing Devil’s Advocate: would an increase in tax on rental income simply increase rental prices as the costs were passed on? Ideally I suppose the tax could be ring-fenced for the housing sector, but I’d worry that young people would find it even harder to save a deposit if rental prices went up.
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Dec 2019
10:57am, 3 Dec 2019
9,268 posts
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rf_fozzy
Explanation of how MRP modelling works on BBC R4 more or less this morning (now on BBC iPlayer or whatever it's called). Explains why it can get it very wrong. Especially off a single poll. Basically it uses the subgroup numbers (which have extremely high margins of error) to extrapolate results and if you get it wrong in one place, you get it wrong everywhere. |
Dec 2019
11:30am, 3 Dec 2019
9,652 posts
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larkim
I'm sure all of the polling organisations want to get it "right" and no doubt they work hard to try to mitigate sampling errors or provide appropriate margin of error reporting. But in the 140 character world we live in, polls are reported as bald numbers. As befits all those candidates for whom the polls are not "on their side", the response can only be "there's only one poll which really matters" etc etc. The picture will undoubtedly be more nuanced than the polls can ever hope to accurately predict, but the overall shape certainly points in one direction 
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Dec 2019
11:55am, 3 Dec 2019
33,489 posts
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Merry Christmas & Happy New G(rrr)
Anyone seen First Dog on the Moon, Australian cartoon in Guardian, explaining why you could and should vote for Labour, despite Corbyn! It's v funny! G theguardian.com |
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Dec 2019
12:02pm, 3 Dec 2019
9,658 posts
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larkim
Good cartoon - bounces around my echo chamber nicely Shame he spelt it "Labor" though!!
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Dec 2019
12:15pm, 3 Dec 2019
731 posts
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Ally-C
Trump straight off the plane and telling his Turnberry Brexit bullshit story, surely journalists much challenge such nonsense?
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Dec 2019
12:45pm, 3 Dec 2019
22,943 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I went to the hustings last night. Probably about 3-400 people there. Judging by the noise: LibDems were 50% of the crowd, Labour and Greens about half the volume. Only a handful of Tories - guess who unwittingly sat in the middle of them. I was one seat away from the most rabid batshit Torykipper in the audience. I shouldn't draw any conclusions from a meeting that has clearly been packed by the supporters of one party but the almost complete absence of Tory supporters made me wonder how big the Tory Party's "ground game" will be next week - given that most party members are, ahem, on the mature side, how many people can they muster on the ground compared to Labour and LD? I saw on the telly that ground game can add 1% - 2.5% to the vote if you get it right. Might be important? Personally I don't feel that the Brexshit crowd have any major commitment to "their" project - look how pitiful the response was when we missed the October deadline. It's so frustrating that a project with such a featherlight following is still likely to go ahead. These will doubtless be the people who will be most affected by Brexit yet they can't seem to be able to get past the 52/48 win. Having made a shit decision they cannot bring themselves to accept they may have buggered up the country for a generation. It's almost like they couldn't give a shit. |
Dec 2019
12:49pm, 3 Dec 2019
74 posts
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PK
I found that cartoon a little bit ironic in that it seemed to say, on one hand, vote labour because Corbyn is only one man, not the party. Yet, on the other, it says don't vote Tory because Boris is an ar8e.
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Dec 2019
12:52pm, 3 Dec 2019
5,892 posts
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jda
Our local hustings last night and the incumbent Tory was given quite a hard time. Seemed to be a mix of the other three parties in the room (green candidate is fairly strong, local councillor and performed well). TBH I can see why he hardly turns up, it can't be much fun to sit there and get heckled by 100 people who were never going to vote for him anyway. His seat is safe anyway.
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