Nov 2019
1:29pm, 25 Nov 2019
9,262 posts
|
rf_fozzy
I saw that in the data jda - my suspicion is that unless these can vote BP, they're less likely to vote than wavering Lab voters. But that might be wishful thinking. I also wonder how the models are taking up the problem of BP standing in some seats and not in others. For example, has the "bump" seen in the Tory numbers just come from BP voters being forced into voting Tory in Tory held seats. Whilst this doesn't help Labour *win* any seats (Tory vote likely increased), it doesn't necessarily mean Lab will lose seats they are defending. In short, how efficient is the Tory vote and where does the extra BP/UKIP vote get distributed? - marginals or Tory strongholds? I think the picture is still too complicated to know. That said, Labour definitely *not* in a good position and a Tory maj probably most likely. |
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Nov 2019
4:46pm, 25 Nov 2019
9,263 posts
|
rf_fozzy
It's nice to have your point that you made earlier confirmed by a Professor of Politics from Manchester Uni... twitter.com "One reason to suspect things may narrow a bit from here to election day is that Cons have run out of BXP vote to squeeze Another is that the remaining undecided vote leans Lab" |
Nov 2019
5:43pm, 25 Nov 2019
6,919 posts
|
Too Much Water
I guess there will be a few target seats which declare early on the night which should let us know what’s going on. Until then it’s hard to understand what the polls mean, unless there’s a 1000 people polled in each of the 300 most likely to change seats. |
Nov 2019
6:12pm, 25 Nov 2019
31,182 posts
|
LindsD
I've taken the morning of the 13th off.
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Nov 2019
6:12pm, 25 Nov 2019
36,069 posts
|
Derby Tup
Off to local hustings this evening
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Nov 2019
8:54pm, 25 Nov 2019
33,366 posts
|
HappyG(rrr)
Ooh, this thread got a mensh on Podcast. Intelligent discourse. And might want something relaxing after, were both referred to!  G
|
Nov 2019
9:55pm, 25 Nov 2019
15,528 posts
|
Chrisull
Troy majority still beckons, but at least Wales is looking at Johnson and gagging: Wales - YouGov Labour 38% (+9) Conservatives 32% (+4) Plaid_Cymru 11% (-1) LibDems 9% (-3) Brexit party 8% (-7) Green Party 1% (-2) The race is polarising like 2017 between Labour and Tories. Trouble is more people leaning to Tories this time. |
Nov 2019
10:04pm, 25 Nov 2019
22,926 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
The polls seem to be more widely divergent than I can recall. At least some of the pollsters are going to end up with egg on their faces. I get a sense things might be drifting towards Labour, though. I'd like to think that the cumulative effect of Johnson's lies and buffoonery is starting to catch up with him. |
Nov 2019
12:21am, 26 Nov 2019
3,646 posts
|
run free
Not just Johnson but also Gove, Cummings and Rees-Moggs. They reek of lies and nasty arrogance.
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Nov 2019
3:30am, 26 Nov 2019
3,649 posts
|
run free
Just an aside... does JC look like a Jedi? (put a pair of glasses on him) |
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