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Nov 2019
9:56am, 25 Nov 2019
33,348 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
It's going to be a horrid 5 years. But it could be 10. What eventually got rid of the Tories wasn't their (Major) bumbling on Europe, it was a few scandals, and a total change to New Labour. Agree, whether you found T Blair a simpering yuck or loved him (I was the latter) it was just a great way (the only way?) to user in any centrist (never mind left wing or socialist) policies.
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Nov 2019
10:19am, 25 Nov 2019
9,260 posts
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rf_fozzy
I, too, have approached the nihilist approach.
Going to be awful.
The only hope I hold out is that the although the polling numbers look awful, they usually take don't knows out. And there are a lot of possible labour voting don't knows.
It might not be quite as bad as we fear.
On the other hand it might be as bad as we fear.
I am under no illusion about the awfulness that will unfold given a Torykip majority with BJ in charge.
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Nov 2019
11:19am, 25 Nov 2019
22,925 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Just downloaded the Tory manifesto. Having skim-read it my initial impressions are:
Very little to scare the horses there other than the "no extension of the transition period" statement - which might turn out to be yet another load of Tory bluster.
Very little mention of their record for the past 9 years - how could they - and no acknowledgement that they are only reversing the depredations they have themselves visited upon the country. No mentions of food banks, and many of the touchy-feely changes have no level of detail. Universal Credit will continue.
Visually you would think the Tory party was stuffed with BAME people and people under 30. Barely a white male over 50 to be seen - rather at odds with the reality. Quite puke-inducing image management in other words.
So, no chances I can see of a Maybot-style manifesto meltdown. They have learnt.
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Nov 2019
11:25am, 25 Nov 2019
5,839 posts
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jda
I'm holding onto my pollyannaish hope that the polls are a bit biased. We do know for sure that far more young people have registered recently than usually happens (well compared to last time anyway). Also, anecdotal of course, but round here in our true blue safe rural constituency, I have seen not a single tory poster or placard of any description which is quite a surprise. There are both labour and LD posters up in windows, not a huge proportion but a fair number of both.
Canvassing on the doorstep, a very large number of don't knows but I can't say how that compares to usual.
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Nov 2019
11:31am, 25 Nov 2019
24,741 posts
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Wriggling Snake
The don't knows won't vote labour, if anything they just won't turn up, the Tory vote will.
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Nov 2019
11:55am, 25 Nov 2019
8,283 posts
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simbil
Moderate Tory remainers have poor choices too and simply might not bother voting.
The fantasy land populist campaigning and poor choices all round for moderates on the left, center and right might mean that a critical election that should have a massive turnout does not.
But it may have unusual demographics turning out instead and that makes it still very hard to predict.
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Nov 2019
11:58am, 25 Nov 2019
720 posts
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Ally-C
Simbil, the Tories always get out & vote.
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Nov 2019
1:17pm, 25 Nov 2019
9,261 posts
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rf_fozzy
So, looking at, for example, the most recent YouGov survey.
Top line figures:
Con 42%, LAB 30, LD 16, BP 3, SNP 4, GRN 4, PC<1
But delve into the data and actually the breakdown is as follows:
Con 31, LAB 22, LD 12, BP 2, SNP 3, GRN 3, PC<1
Would note vote: 8%
Don't know: 15%
Refused to answer: 3%
15% is a lot of don't knows. According to the data, For people who voted CON in 2017, 11% don't know, Lab 16%, LD 15%.
Which is what I expected - there are a large(ish) block of possible/potential Lab and LD voters who simply don't know.
Not trying to spin false hopes, but it shows that the polling data isn't necessarily showing the complete picture.
There's lots of other interesting possible things in the data too. No time to talk about it.
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Nov 2019
1:18pm, 25 Nov 2019
5,840 posts
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jda
You'd think, but there's a fair proportion of angry brexiters (mostly tory) and it's not clear if/who they are going to vote for. Can they really vote for the Tories' Brexit Betrayal?
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Nov 2019
1:24pm, 25 Nov 2019
15,527 posts
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Chrisull
fozzy - yes and I note pollsters have been saying the don't knows for Lab/Lib Dem are predominantly those who don't know which of the two to vote for (or waiting tactically), so there is a little hope for a boost in the final polling figures.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
