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Sep 2019
2:40pm, 27 Sep 2019
8,189 posts
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simbil
Away from research facilities at the moment- do these Twitter heros cover the 3 scenarios above?
Careful Chris, it could be another national march the length of the country by literally dozens of angry leavers like we saw earlier in the year.
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Sep 2019
2:46pm, 27 Sep 2019
24,146 posts
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Wriggling Snake
One thing I think BoJo was doing, was angling for a deal, basically May's deal with a few bits lobbed off. I also think he's not that arsed if there is No Deal, and that's why I think No Deal is still there in the background somewhat. I wouldn't say confident, everything is increasingly messy (deliberately so by the government as the arguments are drifting away further and further from actually sorting it out), and I don't see how anyone can be confident of any particular outcome.
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Sep 2019
3:06pm, 27 Sep 2019
5,309 posts
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jda
I’m still quite confident of no Brexit as there is clearly no Brexit that has majority (perhaps even substantial) support. Never has been.
Of course there are lots of things that can go wrong with such an analysis. Accidents do happen. But in principle I’m right and my prediction has fared a lot better than the vast majority.
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Sep 2019
3:51pm, 27 Sep 2019
32,503 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Fingers crossed you are right in the long term jda!
Chris, wee bit of care with the "fighting talk" sonny! Just because we (Remain) might have a younger, more virulent supporter, doesn't mean we should advocate (and I know you weren't advocating, just remarking on the Leave camp's inadvisability of) violence!
However, I made the opposite point a few pages back - that is, while we (Remain) might be angry about the lies, illegal stunts and the aggressive talk from Johnson et al, we're quietly and are still up for negotiated solution.
The people like to spill over into acts of physical violence (riots, I called it) are the much less cerebral arch-Leave camp, imho. I believe they are small minority of angry, young to mid aged, white predominantly men. But they are angry and they might be minded to take action when they feel they are losing in the war of words, or take to the streets when they are losing in the courts and in the parliament.
They might not be representative of the majority of Leave older, history loving Britisher demographic. But they would be its military wing! Grrr.
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Sep 2019
3:59pm, 27 Sep 2019
24,147 posts
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Wriggling Snake
That's interesting.
I find, and perhaps it is because I know a lot of people who voted leave. That the leave vote is alive and well and is not just all red faced, angry old people. I am quite sure Brexit will happen, quite sure a GE would result in a Brexit balanced parliament (that's why remainers in the house aren't pushing as hard as they y could) and quite sure Brexit would win a other referendum.
The fact that even a few remainers are open to negotiation also shows me leave will happen.
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Sep 2019
4:06pm, 27 Sep 2019
32,504 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
And while I wish it were *not* so, I tend to think WS may well be right about the possible outcome of either a 2nd Ref or (less clearly) a GE for Brexit / Leave majority. We shall see.  G
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Sep 2019
5:05pm, 27 Sep 2019
2,322 posts
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Fellrunning
Perhaps I'm niaive, however I'm wondering that if a senior remain figure briefed a national newspaper and effectively threatened a popular uprising, just how long it would be before the authorities paid a visit and "Had a word" about incitement.
Can we expect Cressida Dick to go a tapping on the door of no 10 anytime soon???
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Sep 2019
5:20pm, 27 Sep 2019
5,310 posts
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jda
There’s no one for the “willing remainers” to negotiate with. People like Kinnock jnr are trying but it’s pretty pointless until the leavers can vaguely agree on a destination. If we do manage to technically leave (into a transition where we pretend we are still members) then that just becomes the next indefinitely-extensible staging post.
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Sep 2019
7:22pm, 27 Sep 2019
24,150 posts
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Wriggling Snake
I would agree with that, the next staging post...but we are then on our way..it could take years. Probably was always going to...but once we are on that path it will be difficult to turn it around.
Incidentally this all goes back to May trying to force things early on, compounding Cameron's cowardice and is now being continued by Johnson railroading again.
You still have to consider that Labour, despite Corbyn's prevarication, lack of consistency or any credibility really, will back leave in the end because Corbyn is a leaver.
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Sep 2019
7:48pm, 27 Sep 2019
2,293 posts
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J2R
I still have fond hopes that if a 2nd Referendum were scheduled, a lot of people would swing behind Remain who might, at the moment, be defined as soft Leavers. I think there is a perception among many that a 2nd Referendum is somehow undemocratic (which is nonsense, but that's what's been pushed in the media for 3 years), and that we somehow 'ought' to leave even if that's not what we want. But if a 2nd Referendum were to happen, it would legitimise Remain as an option for many who have hitherto ruled it out.
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