The War in Ukraine
43 watchers
Apr 2022
9:49am, 6 Apr 2022
1,458 posts
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Muttley
A further consequence is going to be long-lasting hatred in Ukraine for all things and people Russian. Many families span the border and there are already reports of folk in Ukraine describing to relatives in Russia what's going on and not being believed or being told that it's actually the Nazis who are doing it all. It's going to take a long time for this kind of rupture to heal. The ex-Mrs Muttley is an example: born in (Soviet) Ukraine, mother Ukrainian and father Russian, the family switched happily between the languages and everyone got on fine. But since the annexation of Crimea and related events in 2014, the Ukrainian identity has come to the fore and Russian passports have been ditched. This is a perceptive piece about the distinct identities of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia: theguardian.com |
Apr 2022
10:16am, 6 Apr 2022
35,541 posts
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LazyDaisy
My hunch is that Russia will eventually prevail,... because it doesn't care ... how many of its own troops get killed. I wonder if that's true? Wasn't one of the reasons they pulled out of Afghanistan was discontent at home about their losses? And despite all their attempts to minimise knowledge of the losses they're suffering now, eventually families will come to know that theirs is not an isolated bereavement. Or am I being hopelessly naive 
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Apr 2022
10:19am, 6 Apr 2022
31,798 posts
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EvilPixie
LD you forget that official figures are only 900 off Russian soldiers have died
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Apr 2022
10:43am, 6 Apr 2022
11,173 posts
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lammo
What is likely to be the real number there? also, how do we trust a number?
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Apr 2022
10:50am, 6 Apr 2022
960 posts
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paulcook
Figures do vary between Russia, Ukraine, the US and NATO. Killed looks to be about 10000+ which is still only 5% of their manpower though Nato claims 40000 missing, wounded or killed which would be a much bigger problem to Russia especially if this war keeps ongoing. What does Putin then do, possibly in desperation, if he’s losing. |
Apr 2022
11:10am, 6 Apr 2022
55,002 posts
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Derby Tup
‘What does Putin then do, possibly in desperation, if he’s losing?’, is the key question He already breaks the rules of war without apparently caring and what if as some reports suggest he might be seriously ill? |
Apr 2022
11:28am, 6 Apr 2022
3,205 posts
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flyingfinn
However much we wring our hands, politicians spout largely meaningless rhetoric and the UN endlessly debates the situation, in all likelihood the reality is that at some point the war will reach some sort of stalemate. Russia will be left occupying a bigger portion of Ukraine than post 2014, the conflict will rumble on at a low level as it has since 2014 but it will no longer be front page news and the rest of the world will largely forget about it. In 5 years time the west will be back buying Russian resources (indirectly if not directly), our commercial enterprises (banks, companies) will be helping Russians evade whatever sanctions/restrictions remain in place and our politicians will be explaining why it's now OK again to accept donations from people/bodies with Russian connections. The UN is essentially just a talking shop, in terms of the major powers it has little or no real power. The arms we are providing are giving the Russians a bloody nose but ultimately they are unlikely to actually stop them completely. Short of NATO getting fully involved (and I don't think anyone wants to see the consequences of that) anything we can do is largely picking at the edges and is largely being done for the sake of the West's conscience. For a variety of reasons if there is going to be a real winner out of this my money is on China. |
Apr 2022
2:15pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,645 posts
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Northern Exile
I've just finished my round-up of the usual information sources and I think everyone is in agreement about where all this is heading, opinion that is largely echoed here. I do think that the war has been a bit of a wake-up call for many, particularly in terms of the indiscriminate nature of Russian ground forces warfare ...... I remember many years ago reading a Soviet "Field Interrogation Manual" that had been produced for their war in Afghanistan and the prescribed techniques would contravene every convention in the Western World and appal most decent humans, way too gruesome to expand on here. Daisy, I'm afraid it's true - they really don't care how many get killed, either on their own side or the opponents - it's all "pushechnoye myaso" (cannon fodder). I can only hope that someone is called to account for the atrocities, but I do fear that FF is correct and that the economic pull of Russia's natural resources will be eventually be too much to resist. We'll see how that pans out I guess, but in the meantime I'm forced to concede that unless something really unusual happens, the UN are effectively useless in this conflict. I can't see the blue helmets going in, there are plenty of seats at the security council who wouldn't back it. From Putin's point of view, focussing on consolidating his ground in the east of the country will make sense and of course, it will be that much more difficult to get Western armament supplies to the Ukrainians who need them. He'll also be thinking that for the time being at least it will make NATO less anxious for his operations to be well away from their eastern flank - isn't than how he got away with it in Crimea?? Just to endorse what was said earlier, I also am of the opinion that he's a fucking maniac, but not a suicidal one and he wishes to live a while longer and for his children to do likewise. He'll have nuclear assets fully deployed right now and will know that the West will have done likewise. The nuclear sabre-rattling will not happen again without a significant change in the scenario as it unfurls, an itchy trigger-finger is a dangerous thing to have when guaranteed annihilation of your country is the inevitable consequence. Just as an aside, I saw this morning that pressure is on India to get off the fence a bit, that's a positive step. I also see that Zhirinovsky pegged it today, he was a bad 'un for sure. I can't see many in the West mourning his death. |
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Apr 2022
2:43pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,646 posts
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Northern Exile
FYI abcnews.go.com |
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Apr 2022
2:49pm, 6 Apr 2022
55,003 posts
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Derby Tup
ff great summary NE thanks for the ABC link |
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