The War in Ukraine
43 watchers
Apr 2022
2:59pm, 6 Apr 2022
4,151 posts
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Goofee
In the unlikely (I guess) event of Putin somehow being ousted soon, what sort of stance are possible successors likely to take, does anyone have any insight? Is it just a succession of Putin 'hard-man' clones or are there any chances of a more conciliatory approach in future?
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Apr 2022
3:04pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,647 posts
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Northern Exile
Well, the automatic successor (I suppose) would be Mishustin, he's the PM. Whether he would get the job long-term is another matter. I think there are a few other contenders in the wings, but I wouldn't like to guess who's at the top of the list. I'm thinking that Shoigu (the Defence Minister) is currently not at the top of Putin's Xmas card list.
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Apr 2022
3:20pm, 6 Apr 2022
1,460 posts
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Muttley
Putin's regime is very well entrenched. The independent media and political opposition (not the tame outfits in the Duma, real opposition like Navalnyy and others) have been squashed. There is a huge repressive machinery. The problem with such regimes is that they're rock solid and immovable ... until the moment that they're not. If it implodes or there is a coup, it's likely to be sudden and pretty tumultuous. And unpredictable. But hopefully not dangerous in the nuclear sense, because it's not just one man's finger on the button, there's a whole chain of command. Otherwise, if there's a planned succession, the problem is to pick the successor. This is the moment of danger for any dictator. He needs to be sure that he will not face jail or worse, because he's been in power so long he's made lots of enemies. So at the top of the shopping list are immunity and protection so he can live out his days enjoying what he's stolen and not fearing those from whom he stole it. What the public thinks is unlikely to feature. That said, Putin is in his late 60s and despite talk of him being unwell, he looks pretty much across his brief every time he speaks on TV. Which is every day. |
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Apr 2022
4:00pm, 6 Apr 2022
1,461 posts
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Muttley
Interesting article about Ukraine's drone teams: wionews.com
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Apr 2022
6:10pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,648 posts
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Northern Exile
........ and despite talk of him being unwell, he looks pretty much across his brief every time he speaks on TV. Which is every day. There's been lots of talk about him being unwell. He looks to me like he's got hamster face, a known side-effect of taking corticosteroids over an extended period. When I was a regular visitor to the rheumatology department at my local hospital I used to see similar symptoms. But then again, it could be botox. |
Apr 2022
6:22pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,648 posts
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Eynsham Red
[But then again, it could be botox] If I felt the need to use Botox I’d want it to improve my appearance 😉 |
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Apr 2022
6:23pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,649 posts
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Northern Exile
Oh dear ...... cityam.com |
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Apr 2022
7:24pm, 6 Apr 2022
8,655 posts
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Northern Exile
This is worth a read if you want some context: theweek.co.uk |
Apr 2022
8:07pm, 6 Apr 2022
35,543 posts
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LazyDaisy
While I was in the car this afternoon I heard Misha Glenny's programme on R4 - The Invention of Poland. Very interesting and I shall listen to the previous episode 'Obliterated from the map' - how Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine were wiped from the map - on my run tomorrow. Nothing justifies what the Russians are doing, but being very ignorant of the history of this part of the world I feel it's time I was better informed. |
Apr 2022
12:19pm, 7 Apr 2022
19,138 posts
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Chrisull
Without taking this into politics (which I've no wish to), but I note NE's opening remark about not using it to criticise the UK government (which I won't). But a couple of related observations 1) - defence secretary Ben Wallace is now the most popular member of the Tory party according to YouGov, with Sunak now not even the top 5. Shows what even a little bit of competence can do for you - Wallace talked sense early on in the conflict 2) - it's not really about any single country per se, or even just about the EU/Europe. It is about "the West", and as the son of someone displaced by Hitler's intentions to absorb Sudetenland into the Reich and abhorring Chamberlain's pathetic inaction, I feel a very sad kind of deja vu. For the record I was against war in Iraq, in Afghanistan and even in Serbia (it felt like a tinderbox ready to ignite, and the Croats took part in some massacres of the Bosnian muslims, if not to the same extent as the Serbs did). BUT here I feel that the West is not doing enough. I am not advocating a no fly-zone, or rocking up with ground troops at the border, but a civilization/The West cannot merely stand by and let Mariupol and Bucha happen and lament "but it might cause world war 3, so we can't do any more." Any civilization which stands by and looks after its own interests and safety first is morally bankrupt. The globalised economy forces us to interact with Russia, and if in 6 months time it's over and the Donbas region is carved up and Putin is still in power, how can we just go - well it's business for the oligarchs in London as normal, we can all buy Russian oil again. It makes us totally complicit in what is happening. I don't have any answers, but I'm not a politician. Harsher sanctions, but really there has to be greater military support for Ukraine- what red lines have Russia not crossed already? Are we waiting for a chlorine gas attack or similar? What message do we give to the rest of the world if we carry on as we are? If Putin gets even a fraction of what he wants, he will be back in 5-10 years and probably not making the same mistakes, taking back Poland or the Baltic states. This is the kind of thing they are mooting at the moment on Russian state TV. It's not exactly secret. For our inaction I think future historians will judge us very, very harshly. |
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