The sub 3.30 marathon thread
190 watchers
Mar 2024
6:29pm, 30 Mar 2024
4,144 posts
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tipsku
Congratulations on your extremely high WAVA, Solo. 84% is really impressive! Also congrats on the PB, auburnette. That's a great confidence builder. My 10k was a SW, 48:19, hot and dusty with Sahara dust in the mix. I set off at normal pace but at 2 km, my head felt really hot and I slowed down to stay on my feet. It turned out as a useful threshold session in warm conditions. Leipzig marathon can be anything between 2°C and sleet or 23°C and sunshine. I've done the sleet and snow bits, now it was a muggy 20°C. Good for acclimation but I didn't enjoy it at all. I didn't expect to place in my category with a slow 10k like this but I won with a time 5 min slower than 2 weeks ago. I'll take it and I finished feeling okay. Several people collapsed at the finish or on the course, there was a DNF in my category. |
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Mar 2024
6:42pm, 30 Mar 2024
4,145 posts
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tipsku
As for the Tanda calculator, I just checked my previous marathons and the predictions for each. Leipzig last year: 3:40:19 was predicted, outcome 3:29:36, 10:43 minutes faster Athens: 3:53:52 was predicted, 3:48:21 was the outcome, 5:31 faster, Athens is hilly. Current prediction is 3:36:23 so I'm confident I can beat that by a comfortable margin, provided it is not too hot. When temperatures are well over 15°C, I struggle to beat the prediction. Leipzig 2018 was such a case where I was predicted to run 3:43:07 and I finished in 3:45:27. So I'm hoping for cooler weather and rain. Rain seems to be performance enhancing, e.g. Leipzig last year, where it rained at the start; same in Helsinki 2016. With a prediction of 4:09:27 (Which I didn't know, I hadn't heard of Tanda until recently), I ran 3:37:24, beating the calculator by 32 minutes. |
Mar 2024
10:00pm, 30 Mar 2024
902 posts
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Solo
Thanks tipsku Well done on adapting to the conditions of your race and winning your age category. Sometimes it's not about the time. Your Tanda stats are encouraging too. I am currently at 3.29.15 but I have no previous data to compare the prediction to and tbh won't decide on pace till nearer the time. I read a recent article by Don Fink saying if you can complete 20 miles at MP with no taper you should be able to run a marathon at the same pace. I am using this as a good indicator it might be feasible to attempt sub 3.30 if the stars align! Yay to the pb auburnette especially as you are not in taper mode yet. A few seconds here and there all add up in the end. Well done. |
Mar 2024
10:49pm, 30 Mar 2024
8,682 posts
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Pothunter
I’ve found the Fetch predictor to be much more accurate in the past: fetcheveryone.com/marathonprediction
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Mar 2024
12:53am, 31 Mar 2024
3,284 posts
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riggys99
Well raced the racers Amazing WAVA Solo Great PB auburnette Tough sounding race tipsku well done on the cat win |
Mar 2024
8:21am, 31 Mar 2024
1,992 posts
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Mark J 🇳🇿
Awesome WAVA Solo. Huge congratulations. I've done my last long one today. A 39k with some marathon pace thrown in for good measure. Ready to taper and feeling ready to race in three weeks time. |
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Mar 2024
8:36am, 31 Mar 2024
3,285 posts
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riggys99
Awesome WAVA Solo. Huge congratulations. I've done my last long one today. A 39k with some marathon pace thrown in for good measure. Ready to taper and feeling ready to race in three weeks time. Enjoy the taper it’s well earned Nice last long run |
Mar 2024
9:39am, 31 Mar 2024
2,276 posts
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auburnette
Well done on the win tipsku and fantastic WAVA Solo (don't know how to tag two in one post!) Interesting re the 20 miles untapered. In effect I've done that as my 14 miles MP with 3 wu and cd came out at about 3:30 pace (my MP miles were on the faster side). I think you have a really strong shot at 3:30 Solo, you seem to be very comfortable at that pace. Re calculators, Fetch and Tanda both used to be accurate within a minute or so for me but the last two marathons I've outperformed them by 4 minutes +. Its hard to get a reliable HM time to input into the Fetch calculator as most of my recent HMs have been run untapered during marathon training. |
Mar 2024
10:33am, 31 Mar 2024
37,070 posts
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Hills of Death (HOD)
Excellent running Aub I’m sure you will pb. My prediction is ….finish …probably |
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Mar 2024
10:51am, 31 Mar 2024
903 posts
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Solo
Mark J 🇳🇿 Enjoy your taper 😀 Wow, that sounds very positive auburnette I remember your very impressive racing in your last marathon and it looks like you have built on that considerably. I am excited for you! |
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