The Sub 3:15 Marathon Thread
334 watchers
Jul 2020
11:29am, 9 Jul 2020
35,555 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
I followed P&D pretty rigorously in my 2 or 3 successful marathon PB campaigns. But I ran *much* slower on average than most people. But, I hit the paces in the MP, the tempo and the intervals. Those are way less than 50% of the total running though. Most of it is "general" and some "easy/recovery" stuff in there too. Doing those slow and easy are what made my targeted pace runs doable and successful, in my experience.  G
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Jul 2020
11:30am, 9 Jul 2020
4,703 posts
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Windsor Wool
*they're on P&D, I don't do it any more because I think I found better plans for me but I've done it many times in the past. It's harder than you might think if you follow the pacing guidance that's in there. A lot of people don't read that section and go straight to the plans, running the different runs at the paces they prefer rather than those suggested. As HG suggests, it's well worth investing the time to read the whole book. 3rd edition has some tips for 'Masters' marathoners.....many on here fall in to that category nowadays. |
Jul 2020
3:08pm, 9 Jul 2020
11,482 posts
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larkim
Just playing around with Tanda, and whilst it is clearly not causative, if I plug in that easy / long / MLR runs representing 46 of a 55 mile week (84%) at 8:15 per mile Tanda would push out 3:10. Change that to 8:45 per mile and Tanda would say 3:17. But picking up various points in the thread here, I don't think many would agree that dropping easy / long run pace by 30s per mile would "harm" race expectations by 6 minutes. Clearly there comes a point at which running *far too* slowly would detract from the likely outcome, and running far too fast would likely result injury breakdown. But within a sensible window there does seem to be consensus that the pace matters relatively little. I've no idea how wide that window is though. The alternative tack of course is to be prescriptive about HR zones for the various different flavours of runs in a weekly schedule, and I wonder if that might be able to be more formulaic with a causative link. e.g. (completely made up numbers alert):- Run 20% of weekly mileage as a single long run in Zone 2 Run 60% of the rest of weekly mileage in Zone 2 Run 15% of weekly mileage in Zone 4 Run 5% of weekly mileage in Zone 4 to 5 Result would be the ability to run a marathon with HR in Zone x for miles 1-10, Zone y for miles 11-22, Zone z for miles 23-26.2 at a pace which is a function of the Zone 4 pace above. I know there are "race day factors" with HRM, but do we think that a predictor based on HR data (assuming it's accurate) would be more reliable than a predictor based on paces? |
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Jul 2020
3:19pm, 9 Jul 2020
35,556 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
If I put in my 9 min / mile plus long run ave pace (from back in the day) then it would show a 3:30 but I managed a 2:57ish, by doing the targeted MP, tempo and intervals as I said on prev page. "Ave" pace is irrelevant, I'd have thought. Actually, misleading. And actually, encouraging you to train in the "wrong" way? Is Tanda the antithesis to Periodization (great thread on that by the way!) |
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Jul 2020
3:20pm, 9 Jul 2020
35,557 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
And my predictor based on pace worked perfectly, thanks!
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Jul 2020
3:31pm, 9 Jul 2020
11,483 posts
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larkim
The problem with "dissing" Tanda, is that it's based on a research paper that stands up to scrutiny. Though it does also quote a standard error of 4 mins (not sure if that is 4mins either side or +2 / -2 mins either side.) Paper is here rua.ua.es - 22 people studied, 46 marathons run. Whether extrapolating the performance 22 people to all marathoners is appropriate or not, I'm not qualified to ask / answer. I did look back at my one and only "normal" marathon via the Fetch calculator - Tanda 3:14:09, actual 3:14:29. On a sample of 1, pretty damned close! |
Jul 2020
3:33pm, 9 Jul 2020
6,829 posts
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paul the builder
I generally out-performed all the Tanda predictions (at least, the ones on the Tanda page on Fetch). In other circumstances, it would make me wonder (I see a WW-shaped rabbit hole here) if I *had* run slightly faster training paces, would I have raced faster? G - Your 9+ min/mile long runs aren't really though, are they. Weren't they the pace they were because of the terrain and the ascent covered? So pace doesn't really mean the same thing. If you were running 9:30 pace every weekend for 20 miles on flat tarmac, that *would* be unusual and relevant. |
Jul 2020
3:35pm, 9 Jul 2020
30,423 posts
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SPR
It's not dissing it. If you study 22 similar marathoners that use similar plans, you get that result. That's not the same as saying run this average pace in training and you will run this marathon pace. It's how you take the results that's the issue, not the actual result. |
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Jul 2020
3:44pm, 9 Jul 2020
11,484 posts
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larkim
The subjects definitely were similar - though spot on for being relevant for this thread. Aged 28 - 54, race times from 2:47 to 3:36, BMIs ranging from 19.2 to 24.7. Perhaps with the age bracket being tightened up a bit, that's not far off the range of posters on this thread. What the world really needs is a properly controlled study:- 50 people running P&D 50 people running just P&D volume at P&D average pace *all the time* etc But it would be a hell of a long study period! No argument from me that Tanda isn't saying hit this average and this marathon time will come out of the sausage machine. Even though that's precisely what the calculator would say after 8 weeks of running the same pace every run. |
Jul 2020
4:00pm, 9 Jul 2020
16,912 posts
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Bazoaxe
I don't think within reason the slower pace is an issue as long as you are hitting the sessions correctly. 20+ runs for me in over 9mm wouldn't be unusual and although undulating routes not the hilly routes favoured by HappyG. However as the plan progresses I would normally see the LR pace pick as well and I used to like when I was hitting 17 miles in 2:30 or faster which is 8:50mm pace. |
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