The Sub 3:15 Marathon Thread
1 lurker |
336 watchers
Jul 2020
9:56am, 9 Jul 2020
1,360 posts
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Paul N
Ive no frame of reference G. My only marathon to date was off road, unmarked and started at midnight so I'm not sure my 4:40 PB is reflective! Ran a comfortable 3:40 as a training run in May. Tanda (via Cambridge Runners analytics page) has me at about 3:18 at the moment, drifted out a little as I've started concentrating on Zone 1 & 2 volumes, before that was hovering around at 3:15. "Feels" about right, current 5k 19:39. Would be nice to test it at some point. |
Jul 2020
9:57am, 9 Jul 2020
30,415 posts
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SPR
WW = Windsor Wool, a frequent poster on the thread.
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Jul 2020
10:10am, 9 Jul 2020
11,475 posts
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larkim
I think with Tanda you need to be wary of what it's telling you. The data it is built on is actual performances after an actual 8 week training block. So if it is telling you 3:39 today, that's reflective of the fact that if you were to run a marathon in the next week or so, that's where your training would put you in the normal distribution of runners. We had some discussion on this a while back when I knocked together a spreadsheet which did it the other way round - allowed you to plot out a typical 8 week programme and paces, and see what the predictor tool would calculate. JDA on here pointed out quite rightly that there is a huge flaw in that approach in the sense that there is no evidence that simply hitting a range of paces and distances causes the end marathon result. Though I still think there is some mileage (!) in at least mapping out what impact a training plan might have on the calculation that you get from Tanda. The flaw is that Tanda basically is just maths, so if you stick in a ridiculous number (e.g. "I'm going to do all long runs each week, so 55 miles at 8:30" you still get an answer - it's just not an answer that will have any credibility). If nothing else, it lets you see how your tanda prediction gets influenced by a typical balance of fast / easy running that you might be thinking of. But don't think of it as saying "OK, I want to achieve time X, if I construct a plan in this format Y that means that is the best plan to get me to hit that". The spreadsheet is here and is currently populated by the sort of approach I might expect to be doing over the next 12 weeks, if there's a race to be run docs.google.com |
Jul 2020
10:17am, 9 Jul 2020
7,811 posts
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jda
Big_G, I can only reiterate that you need longer runs and longer race pace or at least hard training runs to see how your 5k will translate into a marathon. Unless you've got plenty of prior experience. Some guys in my club can do around 18 mins, even under that, and haven't broken 3:15. If there is no suitable test event in time, how about organising something informal with your club? A handicap or time trial type of event would be safe and better than nothing. We have a 10k |
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Jul 2020
10:24am, 9 Jul 2020
30,416 posts
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SPR
Given you're MAFing ATM (which is slower training than most), Tanda will definitely be out for you. It comes down to you're not in X shape because you've run Y miles a week for Z weeks at W pace. The right plan will slot right in with Tanda, but different plans will be faster/ slower. |
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Jul 2020
10:34am, 9 Jul 2020
11,476 posts
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larkim
But there's no way of knowing which plan will be faster or slower *for you*. All the reputable plans, when followed holistically by people that aren't either sandbagging enormously or over-reaching, will likely produce decent outcomes. They will also, almost by definition, give a Tanda prediction in similar ball-parks. In fact, that was my original motivation to construct that spreadsheet - just for fun, see what happens to the Tanda result if you put in the Jack Daniels plan, the P&D plan, the Runners World plan etc etc. Which reputable plan gives the best Tanda prediciton if the plan is followed? I never did get around to working that through. There is a complete dearth of evidence, other than anecdotal, for whether brand A training programme or brand B is actually better. For me, P&D is tried and trusted and achievable, Jack Daniels looks a bit hard. Some clubmates think P&D has broken them in the past so they avoid it. Each to their own. |
Jul 2020
10:37am, 9 Jul 2020
118 posts
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Big_G
Thanks larkim, yes interesting. No, I don't think of it as "I want to achieve X time". I know it's not accurate for me at the moment. I just look out of interest really. jda, as it happens, I organise my club's Club Championship and obviously that's all been cancelled this year. We are hoping to set up a small competition which will be 6 events on the same course, hopefully in July, August and September (2 events each month). It'll probably only be 4-miles though and it's hilly so not a true reflection. But I know what I've done the course before over the years so that will be something if it happens, but again no real prediction for a marathon. |
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Jul 2020
10:38am, 9 Jul 2020
119 posts
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Big_G
X Post. Yes, I am yet to complete P&D. When I get to the faster stuff in the plans I get injured. Hence 80/20 or 90/10 for me this time around, off of what I hope will be a decent base.
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Jul 2020
10:49am, 9 Jul 2020
11,478 posts
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larkim
Is there any way you can strengthen yourself so that you don't get injured with the fast stuff? For me the ability to know what running at 5:50 pace, even for short-ish distances like 800m / 1km, helps to make 7:10-20 feel comfortable. But maybe I'm just more suited to it.
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Jul 2020
10:53am, 9 Jul 2020
16,905 posts
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Bazoaxe
larkim, you need to finish that comparison piece of work. Would be interesting to see what it tells us. Regarding plans, I think they will all get you in a good place if followed. My worry is when we pick and choose from many based on what we like doing and that often doesn't get the bets outcome. Over time you can get a feel for what works better for you if you try a range of plans. Sometimes though you need to change from what you have always done |
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