10 Jul
8:37am, 10 Jul 2024
68,832 posts
|
LindsD
And I've caught up. It was a blast. Thanks all 
|
10 Jul
9:08am, 10 Jul 2024
86,876 posts
|
Diogenes
I was another who went to bed about 10:30 and got up at 06:00 to confirm what the exit polls had said was correct. I found the Sky News website was the best for checking the later results as they trickled in.
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10 Jul
10:47am, 10 Jul 2024
25,064 posts
|
larkim
x.com Not definitive, of course, and a desktop exercise, but if it is based on a "sensible" redistribution of the Reform vote then that is at least the starting point for an interesting analysis. The sort of result trailed in there would have still met my expectations of a Labour landslide at the outset of the campaign. The redistribution seems to have been done on the basis of this. Maybe not generous enough to the Tories, would be interesting to model how things change based on different splits of the Reform redistribution. |
10 Jul
10:50am, 10 Jul 2024
17,455 posts
|
jda
That distribution doesn’t look realistic to me. It will also vary across the country which might affect the calculation.
|
10 Jul
10:56am, 10 Jul 2024
28,461 posts
|
richmac
Let's hope we find out for real at the next GE.
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10 Jul
10:59am, 10 Jul 2024
45,097 posts
|
SPR
I want Reform policies not to matter because Labour have better solutions and I want Labour to be pulling the Tories to the left of where they are The country will be more harmonious if that happens. |
10 Jul
11:01am, 10 Jul 2024
5,804 posts
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paulcook
Reform have policies?!
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10 Jul
11:03am, 10 Jul 2024
25,065 posts
|
larkim
Yes, agreed - it is very simplistic. I just dropped the results into a spreadsheet and modelled similarly simplistic assumptions. e.g. if 80% of the reform votes had gone back to the Tories, 10% to Labour and 10% chose not to vote it would have put Labour on 302, Tories on 255 and LD on 55. Very, very, very simplistic. Still, a starting point for digging deeper. |
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10 Jul
11:03am, 10 Jul 2024
25,066 posts
|
larkim
Using the split in the image I copied above more or less replicates the tweet's figures (I've not paid enough attention to whether I've got all of the Northern Ireland results etc in there)
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10 Jul
11:09am, 10 Jul 2024
45,098 posts
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SPR
paulcook wrote: Reform have policies?! Lol, good point. More the issues they pick up on. If Labour has the solutions then they aren't relevant. From a simplistic view of things, you don't have to be racist to think if there's not enough housing and public services are stretched, letting more people in is a bad idea. |
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