7 Jul
8:50am, 7 Jul 2024
45,032 posts
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SPR
Greens would clearly be higher. The point would be that parties then have to work together. I suppose under PR, the Tories would be hoping Reform got enough votes so that the two of them could form a government. |
7 Jul
8:54am, 7 Jul 2024
5,742 posts
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paulcook
Here's the Electoral Reform Society's projected version using the Senedd's model of AMS PR voting. electoral-reform.org.uk This might have been the figures I had heard some of the news programmes using, if not, it's at least similar because Reform were definitely in the 90s. |
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7 Jul
9:08am, 7 Jul 2024
45,033 posts
|
SPR
That's based on the current vote share isn't it. Under PR, I'm pretty sure more people vote Green.
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7 Jul
9:11am, 7 Jul 2024
32,620 posts
|
macca 53
[“left-leaning” parties close to 400 seats under their model. Labour, LibDem, Green, SNP and PC]
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7 Jul
9:13am, 7 Jul 2024
5,744 posts
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paulcook
Yes it is, it was as much your response to Tory + Reform under a PR model. The figures YouGov had for theoretical non-tactical voting were: Labour 29 Green 13 Lib Dem 12 Cons 18 Reform 16 Others 9 Though neither the AMS figures above, nor the YouGov figures are perfect. |
7 Jul
9:15am, 7 Jul 2024
17,417 posts
|
jda
Yes SPR it’s hard to know for sure how voter behaviour would change but it seems pretty obvious that smaller parties who are unfairly punished by the current system would tend to get more votes under a fairer approach. Of course we’d probably see parties changing their approach too, as it would be more beneficial to encourage their own voters than to suppress opposition. |
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7 Jul
9:18am, 7 Jul 2024
5,745 posts
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paulcook
jda wrote: Of course we’d probably see parties changing their approach too, as it would be more beneficial to encourage their own voters than to suppress opposition. Absolutely. On the one hand it's easy to say Starmer might not be as popular as Corbyn because he won fewer votes; but Starmer isn't as unpopular as Corbyn because he won those votes in more places. But I also think he won fewer votes because Labour played the system better. So yes, give them PR, and Labour play that game a different way again. |
7 Jul
10:41am, 7 Jul 2024
32,726 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
I would speculate that Farage is now in that Trump space where he can do or say anything and it wouldn’t shake the faith of many of his supporters. But watching him strutting up and down the stage at his “rallies” I concluded that he is yet another one who, like Johnson, is high on his own supply. The whiff of the Dunning-Kruger effect is strong with this one. The narcissism and arrogance is running very high now. So yes, it’s time I did it again: the Gods will not be mocked. His hubris will soon be unravelled. His undoing will come and precipitous it will be, like Johnson and Cummings before him. |
7 Jul
10:53am, 7 Jul 2024
3,681 posts
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Big_G
JB, I’m currently not so sure he’ll be unravelled, although I very much hope you’re right. But there is so much positive chat still on social media about Reform, it’s worrying.
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7 Jul
11:00am, 7 Jul 2024
17,418 posts
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jda
Remember Johnson was undone by the MPs who had never much liked him. Not the party members. And Farage doesn't have any mechanism for removal, being majority shareholder in his company. Of course "his undoing will come" is basically tautologous, all political careers end somehow. One might as well say "the sun will rise" or more frequently "the rain will fall". Tell me something I don't know. |
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