5 Jul
4:14pm, 5 Jul 2024
50,393 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Cerrertonia wrote: HappyG(rrr) wrote:When did NI last have a referendum (if ever) on rejoining a united Ireland? Does Sinn Fein being largest party in NI give them a mandate to ask for that? 1973, it was boycotted by the nationalist community. The Northern Ireland Act of 1999 says that the secretary of state shall order a border poll “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”. The Good Friday Agreement says that there has to be a referendum in the Republic at the same time. I don't think it's the case that a majority would vote for it at the moment. Thanks Cerre. I don't know what the sentiment is in NI at all. I was just going on Alliance generally (non partisan party?) doing quite well and unionist parties not so much. But maybe that's more fragmentation among unionist parties rather than reflecting the balance of public opinion. Thanks.  G
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5 Jul
4:29pm, 5 Jul 2024
5,714 posts
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paulcook
rf_fozzy wrote: paulcook wrote:For all the noise about Reform winning 4 seats (might be 5 now I haven't seen) and 2nd in however many seats as was said above, in terms of comparing voter numbers, they only polled 200,000 more votes than UKIP did in 2015. Is it actually that groundbreaking a result for them? Weight for mortality and maybe. Depends where they are pulling from. Most likely older, Tories who voted Leave. But not necessarily. Fair point about weighting. Labour polling similar since 2015 as reference. Though Tories way, way down obviously. Lord Ashcroft released some figures about where different parties getting its votes from. Reform, despite suggestions it was strong about the young voters, clearly weren't. More likely to be male, C2DE and older voters. It's clearly a good result for them, and the threat can't be diminished, but I now wonder if actually it was a par-to-good result rather than so much to crow about (as it will become). |
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5 Jul
4:31pm, 5 Jul 2024
5,715 posts
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paulcook
Some of those figures here x.com |
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5 Jul
4:54pm, 5 Jul 2024
5,716 posts
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paulcook
rf_fozzy wrote: "I saw one left-wing political analyst yesterday have a go at Starmer for the way he was wearing his trousers!! " Name names? I seem to remember that some leftish commentators had an issue with the way Corbyn was criticised for how he dressed. So hypocrisy is indeed a two way street. No matter what I thought of his politics, policies, views or general demeanour, criticising them on how someone dresses is ridiculous. I think it a little ridiculous that suits and ties have to be worn in the HoC though. And in further proof of his bullshittery making stuff up, he's suggesting Wes Streeting wasn't going to get the health secretary role because of his poor election performance. |
5 Jul
5:01pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,629 posts
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rf_fozzy
bbc.co.uk Grifters gonna grift. |
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5 Jul
5:05pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,630 posts
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rf_fozzy
I also don't think he's quite realised (and I do find it quite amusing) that he's probably going slightly less exposure in places like the BBC now that's he's a sitting MP because of rules around 'balance' - certainly not without equal extra coverage of the greens on the left. I also wonder how long before an MP standards bill (something that was promised by Labour) codifies things like sitting MPs not presenting political TV shows. |
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5 Jul
5:16pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,631 posts
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rf_fozzy
Also with regards the chatter about Tory+Reform, some kind of merger etc. Here's a thought experiment: 1. Assume they do merge at some point - you might say take Tory vote share and Reform vote share and add them together and bingo landslide Torform/Rery landslide (names need some work). Not quite that simple. There is a sizeable chunk of reform voters who are "anti-establishment" - who might have voted for a Boris Johnson Tory party, but under any leader, except perhaps Farage, they might not vote. Similarly there may be a sizeable chunk of Tory voters who are on the centre-rightish side of the party who would not vote for a Torform party. Indeed - evidence is that they are quite happy to vote lib dem. Would the result be enough - Maybe, but not sure. 2. Assume no merger, but Tories try to swing further to the right and eat up the Reform vote. Well (a) they've been trying that this election and it doesn't work for obvious reasons and (b) similar issues to (1) arise too - move too far central and you alienate the far right and move too far hard/far right and you alienate the centre even more. 3. Mortality. Tory and Reform voters skew older. 5 years is a long time and significant chunk of voters will, statistically speaking, die in that time. Given how the demographics vote, this is more likely to hurt those two parties than LDs and Labour. BUT - must also take into account the relative apathy of younger generations to vote. Votes for 16 & 17yr olds might help here. To be sure though, Labour have to show progress over the parliament and have something concrete with a year/18months or so or they will generate the conditions for dissatisfaction and further drive people to the populist left or right. I do think that the general tone of conversation about certain issues will be lowered - particularly so-called culture war rhetoric. Which can only be helpful for Labour as it will allow them to focus more clearly on policy. but we will see.... |
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5 Jul
5:30pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,632 posts
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rf_fozzy
Another thing to think about is what happens when (hopefully and not if?) Galloways far left mob slowly disappear from the conciousness and Gaza becomes less of an issue, it will likely sure up the vote in certain seats.
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5 Jul
5:30pm, 5 Jul 2024
45,002 posts
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SPR
I don't think he will get less exposure. If what he does is news it will be reported and the point is that people notice when he gets involved in stuff. When/ if people get apathetic with Farage, then it will no longer be news.
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5 Jul
5:33pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,633 posts
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rf_fozzy
The issue is SPR, is that he's now an elected representative - the media can't treat him in the same way as they could before. So for example on Question time, he was often added for "balance" due to the rules that the BBC have for coverage. Channel 4, Sky and ITV have similarish rules too. That leaves Talk TV and GBeebies - don't think the former are particular fans of his and the latter is largely preaching to the converted... |
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