5 Jul
12:05pm, 5 Jul 2024
32,705 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
At least you didn't predict 250 Tory MPs though, so there's that.
|
5 Jul
12:05pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,619 posts
|
rf_fozzy
jda wrote: Fozzy assured us (repeatedly) that shy tories didn’t exist so those 24% must be something else. Illiterate greens perhaps? Or uncoordinated libdems. It was within the polling margin of error. And low turnout - and given the Tory voter propensity to vote if turnout is low, their share will increase. But also, yes, some DKs -> Tories. I said last night I expected the Tory vote to shift up a little. This isn't "shy Tories" in the sense of people refusing to tell pollsters their preference and then voting Tory out of some sense of shame. That doesn't exist. |
|
5 Jul
12:07pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,620 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Oh one more thought - looks like the independent split the vote quite effectively to allow Duncan-Smith back in. Which is a major disappointment.
|
5 Jul
12:10pm, 5 Jul 2024
21,867 posts
|
Chrisull
Yeah - complete mismanagement by Labour there. Either sack Shaheen up front months in advance or go with her. To let her think she's candidate and campaign when pregnant and sack her with days to go is pretty horrible. Labour needs to represent a broad church and that includes the "inconvenient" voices on the left. They almost did the same with Diane Abbott.
|
|
5 Jul
12:12pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,621 posts
|
rf_fozzy
And one more: some MRPs clearly quite a bit off in overstating some results - suggests weightings not quite right. Without having time to look in detail now, it was those in the MiC range of projections that look to have been about right. But would need to look at seat by seat projections (and no time for that). VI Polls were a little off too, although not massively so. Also interesting times in NI with TUV picking up a seat and UUP taking one too - both from DUP. Leaves SF as clear main party in NI, but TUV making ground is not good. Shame Alliance didn't pick up any further seats. |
5 Jul
12:29pm, 5 Jul 2024
24,967 posts
|
larkim
Can we have a full analysis of what his podium tells us about his leadership style?
|
5 Jul
12:29pm, 5 Jul 2024
11,462 posts
|
Fields
So with two seats to go, exit poll about right for Labour, a bit toppy for tories, Lib Dems 10% underestimate And the final outcome quite different % wise to all of the polls, but seats won about what these clever MRPs said on average ? |
|
5 Jul
12:31pm, 5 Jul 2024
11,463 posts
|
Fields
rf_fozzy wrote: . So, quite a lot I got wrong, and some stuff definitely a surprise to me. For some reason I felt the need to quote this - even the wizard of foz proves to be infallible 
|
|
5 Jul
12:31pm, 5 Jul 2024
22,622 posts
|
rf_fozzy
I suspect the Owen Jones' of this world are already claiming (based on a flawed understanding) that because Labour got a lower share of the vote this time around, a left-wing Corbyn led government would have walked it with a bigger majority
|
|
5 Jul
12:32pm, 5 Jul 2024
24,968 posts
|
larkim
larkim wrote: Can we have a full analysis of what his podium tells us about his leadership style? I'm going with plain, simple, functional. Nothing flashy. (It may be a recycled one from a previous PM?) |
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Oct 2024
-
Economics
Aug 2023
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018
