Jun 2024
12:59pm, 19 Jun 2024
50,257 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
rf_fozzy wrote: Headline inflation number is meaningless given that no-one feels that (might have made some difference *if* no previous CoL crisis) - need effects to shift votes for people who might be voting on CoL issues - particularly on mortgage rates and those effects can take ~months to feed through. BoE unlikely to cut rates tomorrow anyway is what I am reading. Don't agree with that fozzy. "Look, Conservatives have sorted the economy." type soundbites and pub conversations can be as important as real financial impacts, in knee jerk voting intentions. Or more accurately letting embarrassed reluctant Conservative voters to justify their decision. Paul, yes, you're right, inflation is measured by ONS (though there still seems to be some interpretation there) so theoretically independent. My comment was somewhat tongue in cheek. See "tinfoil hat" expression!  G
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Jun 2024
1:00pm, 19 Jun 2024
4,230 posts
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Cheg
There are different ways to measure inflation, and the basket of goods does change over time. I wouldn't say you'd manipulate it, but not everyone would come to the exact same number. Also the different areas where inflation hits. Particularly food and gas/electric are key. The fact that flatscreen TV's have gone down in price doesn't much help. |
Jun 2024
1:00pm, 19 Jun 2024
5,324 posts
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paulcook
No me neither. Not at all. For years in my old job certainly, our pay never once kept up with inflation. I've never really understood inflation, or why it particularly existed. Though I watched a canny video - think it was something like TED-Ed - on YouTube that explained the why "a little bit of inflation is a good thing". |
Jun 2024
1:04pm, 19 Jun 2024
11,260 posts
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Fields
Pothunter wrote: He’s obviously doing what he thinks will have a better outcome for himself, but that doesn’t mean a worse outcome for the rest of us. Do you think, should his company does well, his workers will benefit as much as he does? If he gives them a 5% pay rise, will his also be 5%? Or will it be more? |
Jun 2024
1:06pm, 19 Jun 2024
24,638 posts
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larkim
x.com yougov.co.uk Some interesting stuff here I think. And not the headline that YouGov have gone with. Starmer as a preference rises to its highest when compared to Farage. So presumably that is 9/100 voters who would otherwise be undecided or choose Sunak in a Starmer / Sunak head to head that flip against Farage. Also Farage's core support is 25/100 as a preferred PM, which only rises when he's compared to Ed Davey?!? On the whole, I think it does show some enthusiasm for Starmer though. But still a lot of undecideds - 25% of voters can't decide whether Starmer or Farage would make the better PM? |
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Jun 2024
1:18pm, 19 Jun 2024
5,325 posts
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paulcook
That headline is weird! Absolutely makes no sense to use it however correct it is. Otherwise, there's either lots of don't knows or neithers on lots of those matches. Don't know wins 4 of the 6 contests, and a close second in a 5th. Not an exact science but I wonder if that's normally the case. Of those 2 contests where there is a winner, it is Starmer. Hands down he wins now. He just needs Murdoch and The Sun's backing ... |
Jun 2024
1:28pm, 19 Jun 2024
22,453 posts
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rf_fozzy
"That’s the first rise in near two years" Lol. 2 years. Big swathes of the public sector have had real terms pay cuts for well over 15 years. "Don't agree with that fozzy. "Look, Conservatives have sorted the economy." type soundbites and pub conversations can be as important as real financial impacts, in knee jerk voting intentions. Or more accurately letting embarrassed reluctant Conservative voters to justify their decision. " How much extra does a headline saying inflation = 2% put in anyone's pocket. Answer £0.00. If people are voting on CoL, the headline means bugger all. |
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Jun 2024
1:31pm, 19 Jun 2024
22,454 posts
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rf_fozzy
Things can get messy without a bit of inflation. I'd need to re-read the book, but Tim Harford explains it in one of his books.
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Jun 2024
1:39pm, 19 Jun 2024
5,326 posts
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paulcook
Yes. That’s basically what the video said. If you miss a 2 percent target at least the market remains somewhat stable. If you miss 0% target the circle reverses and mess ensues.
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Jun 2024
1:45pm, 19 Jun 2024
15,620 posts
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Ultracat
I don’t understand why some people think Farage would make a good PM, when he was an MEP he attended very few sessions, and despite being on the Fisheries committee he was never there to speak up for the rights of UK fishermen. People have very short memories.
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