Nov 2020
1:35pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,229 posts
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rf_fozzy
BTW - I have *no* reason why AZ hasn't been called. Literally all the elections analysis people have said there's no chance Trump could still win it. Most of the outstanding ballots are (a) provisional (and so some won't count) which are more likely to lean Democratic or break roughly even and (b) from a Democratic leaning county. There just aren't enough ballots left to count for Trump to be able to win. And the margin looks likely to be outside of AZ's 0.1% recount margin. |
Nov 2020
1:39pm, 12 Nov 2020
3,228 posts
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J2R
It's important what the economic hit is for. If it's just to save the lives of tens of thousands of people, it's absolutely not worth it. But if it's to stick it to libs and foreigners, then that's a wholly different kettle of (British) fish.
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Nov 2020
1:41pm, 12 Nov 2020
3,229 posts
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J2R
fozzy, I think it's probably an excess of caution in response to the premature call a few days ago by Fox and AP.
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Nov 2020
1:53pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,230 posts
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rf_fozzy
The Fox/AP call was premature, but that's now irrelevant. Once the data is robust enough, it should be called. It would prevent some of the Trump ranting from having such an impact. Georgia is only doing the stupid hand recount because it means that Trump can drag it out a bit longer, which boosts Republicans fundraising for the run off elections. |
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Nov 2020
2:00pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,231 posts
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rf_fozzy
Note that 2x loser McSally also hasn't conceeded her senate race either. Despite there being fewer ballots to count left than the margin of her loss at present.
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Nov 2020
2:01pm, 12 Nov 2020
6,938 posts
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paul the builder
I just read on 538 that if the margin in Georgia *after* the recount remains <1% (!) then Trump can ask for another recount... (source - latest entry here, NOV. 11, 5:13 PM) fivethirtyeight.com |
Nov 2020
2:02pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,655 posts
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larkim
Arizona is fairly baffling - these are the outstanding votes, with a massive 10,000 round sum number in one county, which makes me sceptical that it has any validity. arizona.vote Still, with a 11,500 vote lead, 25,000 uncounted votes *could* (though won't) make a difference? |
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Nov 2020
2:15pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,232 posts
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rf_fozzy
So let's be more analytical. The biggest block of votes left in AZ is from Pima county (10.7k). These are all Provisional or ballots needing signatures checking ("curing") Let's be realistic and assume that not all these ballots will be counted, so only ~60% are ok. That takes us immediately to 6k ballots to count. Pima is quite strongly D, so the ballots should break at least 60-40 in Biden's favour, so let's say net +2k Biden. Lead now ~13k The next biggest block is from Maricopa county, again some cured/provisional ballots won't be accepted and they've got ~3k processed ballots to count. Let's say they end up counting 4k of these ballots out of the 6k in the table. Maricopa leans D, but the recent batches have been *slightly* Trump, so let's be generous and give it 60-40 to Trump, that's a net 800 votes to Trump. We'll give Trump the 130 non-provisional ballots in Pinal too as that's heavily republican Lead now ~12k. That leaves ~7k ballots (all provisional/need curing) from the other counties left. Yes, most of these lean towards Trump to varying degrees, but even if they all are counted (which they won't be), and he gets them all (very unlikely), he still can't mathematically win. It's over. It was over 3 days ago. |
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Nov 2020
2:17pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,233 posts
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rf_fozzy
Sorry, made an error - I did the 60/40 split for Pima on the original 10k, not the revised 6k estimate. So, you can take 800 votes off Biden's net. So it'll be ~11k after Maricopa/Pima. Still not possible to overhaul. |
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Nov 2020
2:18pm, 12 Nov 2020
12,234 posts
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rf_fozzy
PtB - yes. But that 2nd recount would be a machine recount under Georgia law apparently.
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