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Dec 2019
5:30pm, 5 Dec 2019
15 posts
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Daft Vader
Surely not mad, just different opinion?
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Dec 2019
5:35pm, 5 Dec 2019
1,674 posts
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Zorba
Different opinions not allowed on this thread ....
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Dec 2019
5:35pm, 5 Dec 2019
6,949 posts
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Too Much Water
I thought Chris posted a different prediction every day, each contradicting the last in a subtle way. I wonder if he’s a pollster by profession
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Dec 2019
5:41pm, 5 Dec 2019
22,948 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I've pretty much given up hope. I think the Tories could well be on for a landslide, with Labour getting <200 seats. I'd like to think that Scotland and tactical voting would somewhat take the edge of a win like Blair got in 1997 but I am not confident.
Labour replaced Foot with another "man of the Left" after the shellacking they got in 1983 and it took a long time for Kinnock to get them back to something approaching electability again.
Given the current state of affairs in the Labour party I think they will take a similarly long period of time to move back to the centre left. The next 10 years will all be about how much the Tories fuck things up rather than how Labour wrest back power again, because I genuinely think they have drunk the Corbyn Kool-Aid and they will be out for another 10 years now. They'd rather be principled in opposition than go down the route of compromise and pragmatism that is necessary to take the unpalatable edges off their policy positions which make them unelectable.
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Dec 2019
5:47pm, 5 Dec 2019
22,949 posts
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Johnny Blaze
But of course, I could be utterly wrong. I'll just say that Blair's lead over Major in 1997 was 12.5 points and he got 418 seats... the Tories got 165.
I fear for the future if the Tories win by that amount. They will be able to do anything they like, including re-modelling the constitution to suit their own ends.
I do think the shit will hit the fan massively if they aim squarely for a cliff edge in December though. It could bring them down - but probably won't.
It will be interesting to see what the markets do on the morning of 13th... a 3% drop after a massive Tory victory will tell its own story...
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Dec 2019
6:14pm, 5 Dec 2019
2,417 posts
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J2R
I think we will have effectively a permanent Tory government if they win next week. They will gerrymander the constituency boundaries to make it much more difficult for other parties to win back seats, and once Scotland leaves the UK, which it probably will, then the opposition to the Tories in Parliament will be massively reduced.
The Tories have shown that they are utterly without scruples when it comes to acquiring and holding onto power, and what few moderates there are in the party have either been pushed out or are packing it in of their own accord, seeing that they don't belong there any more. The new intake of Tories next week will effectively be Brexit/UKIP people.
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Dec 2019
6:21pm, 5 Dec 2019
22,950 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I'm not convinced they will let the SNP have their second ref. They can point to their steadfast refusal to have a second EU ref as proof of their commitment to not allowing re-runs, and Nicola will be told to take a hike.
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Dec 2019
6:53pm, 5 Dec 2019
5,908 posts
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jda
I'm not optimistic but neither am I giving up. I'm doing enough campaigning etc that I can sleep easily at night knowing I've done my bit. If a large proportion of the less well-off population choose to fuck themselves up, that's their lookout and I'll be ok regardless.
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Dec 2019
6:56pm, 5 Dec 2019
2,418 posts
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J2R
I don't know, jda, I may well be OK financially speaking myself. But Brexit and a hard right Tory government will impoverish this country in so many ways other than economically. I can't shrug my shoulders about it. (I know you're not doing so, of course, and that you're dead against it).
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Dec 2019
7:01pm, 5 Dec 2019
5,909 posts
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jda
Oh, I'm not going to stop opposing it, but I might stop caring so much. It's democracy after all, people have a right to bury their heads in the sand and vote for self-harm if they really want it. I'll quite probably be better off under the Tories.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
