8:20am
8:20am, 11 Oct 2024
33,237 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Imagine him in the war room explaining why he's going to bomb Iran...
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8:25am
8:25am, 11 Oct 2024
33,238 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I'll listen to that one later, HG. My feeling is it won't be as close as people think, but it's just a feeling.
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8:25am
8:25am, 11 Oct 2024
51,133 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
I was just fixing the link for rf_fozzy JB! I haven't actually watched!  G
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8:34am
8:34am, 11 Oct 2024
33,239 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I say it's a feeling but it's underpinned by a soupcon of knowledge concerning the movement of some groups away from Trump and his inability to get above 46% in the previous 2 elections, plus a feeling about human nature: a lot of Republican voters *loathe* Trump and they will stay away on the day or write in "Ronald Reagan's Ghost" or something on their ballot paper rather than submit to another 4 years of exhausting chaos and gaslighting. If they vote him in they are in big trouble; a narrow win for Harris and they are in big trouble. A big win and there's at least a chance that he will be reduced to a tale told by an idiot - full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. |
8:39am
8:39am, 11 Oct 2024
9,524 posts
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Pothunter
On the subject of US presidents, did we take a moment to acknowledge the 100th birthday of Jimmy Carter on 1 Oct? He was apparently the first US President to be born in a hospital. |
8:40am
8:40am, 11 Oct 2024
23,211 posts
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rf_fozzy
No. It's about the possibility that if there is a polling error, it could go either way.
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8:40am
8:40am, 11 Oct 2024
23,212 posts
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rf_fozzy
(replying to JB)
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8:44am
8:44am, 11 Oct 2024
23,213 posts
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rf_fozzy
I do despair at the cognitive bias on display at times (including my own!). Just because you *want* an outcome to happen and you can't understand why anyone would vote trump, we cannot ignore the evidence that shows he could win and very possibly could win. |
8:48am
8:48am, 11 Oct 2024
29,628 posts
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richmac
The government it's being reported are investigating companies over breaking sanctions on Russian O&G. I'd take a wild guess that my lot will be on the list when it comes out. But that's an aside. Until now, in the UK no one has been prosecuted for this, under the last government. An American expert on R4 just now saying that in the US there have been plenty of prosecutions. I would ask why the bought and paid for Tories didn't pursue anything but your already know the answer. |
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9:04am
9:04am, 11 Oct 2024
33,240 posts
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Johnny Blaze
rf_fozzy wrote: I do despair at the cognitive bias on display at times (including my own!). Just because you *want* an outcome to happen and you can't understand why anyone would vote trump, we cannot ignore the evidence that shows he could win and very possibly could win. Polling isn't a prediction, it's a snapshot. It's highly unlikely to be 100% correct on the day, and if it is it will be a fluke. History tells us this, plus we have 3 and a bit weeks to go. I'm making a prediction which rests as much on my instinct and the vibes as anything else. I'm allowed to do that. 1st amendment! If I'm wrong, I'm wrong - it hardly matters a jot what any of us think anyway because we don't have a vote. |
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