10:48am
10:48am, 11 Oct 2024
70,276 posts
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LindsD
Yes, true. I also like TRIP US for election stuff. |
10:50am
10:50am, 11 Oct 2024
33,242 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Everything I've seen says women voters despise Trump by a very large margin. Yes, I know male voters will probably go for Trump and that cancels out to one degree or another, but hey, men have wives and daughters. My gut feeling - somewhat borne out by recent results - is that Roe has energised female voters to dump Republicans because of Roe, and that means this election is "not like the others". Plus, Trump has all the markers for an abusive, coercive male and that makes a lot of women see right through him, plus JD Vance talks like the press spokesman for the Republic of Gilead. All these things will count. The choice couldn't be more clear and if he wins I'm afraid the USA has brought it upon themselves.
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10:50am
10:50am, 11 Oct 2024
22,245 posts
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Chrisull
<q>2. Trump was massively more energetic on the campaign trail than Clinton. Has being 8 years older slowed him down?</a> Oh massively so, I think there's no question Harris is doing more than him (even if it's still not enough). In fact after Harris was first confirmed, Trump practically disappeared from the campaign trail. Wasn't he silent for a week, mainly playing golf? Apparently last night Trump was in Detroit, insulting Detroit, calling it "developing city, like somewhere in China", which I can't imagine would go down too well either. But at this point I guess it's baked in, if you're voting for Trump then is that gonna change your mind? |
10:56am
10:56am, 11 Oct 2024
5,650 posts
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J2R
This article is very good on the general problem America has at the moment: theatlantic.com
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11:03am
11:03am, 11 Oct 2024
22,246 posts
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Chrisull
Also I want to dive a bit deeper into the the impact of "junk" partisan polls being included in averages. By and large it has been a static race, since Harris basically ate up the difference that Biden had ceded to Trump, but not really opened up a big lead. That's remained the same for a couple of months now. But this is NOT represented in Carl Allen's graph here of Democratic win possibility over time, 538 vs Nate Silver (ex 538) vs Carl x.com You'll see a reasonable dip on 538s in the Democratic win percentage, and a HUGE one on Nate Silver's yet both of them recover pretty much to where they were. Carl Allen's remains pretty unchanged throughout - which given my earlier assertions that voters don't change much over a campaign (which I can back up with stats), and my gut feel that nothing much has changed in this campaign despite Harris's strong debate performance and Walz's less good but solid one. So what is causing the dip? Partisan polls. Nate Silver is asked about this directly and disparages it, but at the same time admits it implicitly: "It's a free market, D-leaning pollsters could release polls too if they wanted" x.com The alternative is not to include dubious polls in the polling average, but it seems there is pressure to do so. A reminder, Nate Silver works for a Peter Thiel organisation these days. And it's not some grand conspiracy, but it does basically present a rosier picture for Trump than polls are currently showing, and to encourage Trump voters to go out and vote would be my take, because, if it was anything like the UK, when the Tory voters packed up and stayed at home, they want to avoid that. Which circles back to Cheeky's Dad's first point, there is some "Trump fatigue" I personally believe. |
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11:04am
11:04am, 11 Oct 2024
33,243 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I suppose what I'm saying is: This election is not like the others and has unique confounding factors which may only be confirmed as significant when the counting is all done with. Roe vs Wade; preserving the Constitution; a deeply flawed, mentally declining, 80 year old felon. These are unique factors which may only crystallise when revealed preferences are, erm, revealed by the vote itself. Plus, polls can't measure for ground game, turnout and enthusiasm, so there are other confounding factors which are always at play. |
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11:08am
11:08am, 11 Oct 2024
22,247 posts
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Chrisull
JB - I'd agree with all of that. I'm sure in 2 months time there will be lots of articles telling us how obvious the Harris or Trump win was all along with lots of glorious hindsight. But at the moment it remains on a knife edge.
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11:14am
11:14am, 11 Oct 2024
33,244 posts
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Johnny Blaze
It's interesting to note that the NY Times polls had Trump up by as much as 8 points against Biden but the latest one has Harris up 3. There is hope.
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11:17am
11:17am, 11 Oct 2024
6,671 posts
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paulcook
Johnny Blaze wrote: Everything I've seen says women voters despise Trump by a very large margin. Yes, I know male voters will probably go for Trump and that cancels out to one degree or another, but hey, men have wives and daughters. My gut feeling - somewhat borne out by recent results - is that Roe has energised female voters to dump Republicans because of Roe, and that means this election is "not like the others". Plus, Trump has all the markers for an abusive, coercive male and that makes a lot of women see right through him, plus JD Vance talks like the press spokesman for the Republic of Gilead. All these things will count. The choice couldn't be more clear and if he wins I'm afraid the USA has brought it upon themselves. Possibly a simplistic view, using one issue as a decider. It depends how important that view is (for example I see Labour's approval rating in UK right now among 65yo+ is -81 because of WFA). A quick search showed there wasn't a big difference between M/F for the voting intention. (* 2022 figures I saw easily - 54% male reps, 48% female reps) There's far a bigger difference between race and lesser so age, than gender. Some figures here: 2022 though pewresearch.org |
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11:31am
11:31am, 11 Oct 2024
33,245 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Hmm... okay. I must dig out some counter stats because I'm fairly certain that Roe has had a measurable result on previous races and the female vote is very anti-Trump, plus "Constitution before Trump" is definitely a thing with Haley Republicans, plus Trump election denier candidates have not fared well in previous races. These will all count.
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