11:33am
11:33am, 11 Oct 2024
33,246 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Poll after poll is telling the same story: a Times/Siena survey this month showing Harris up 16 with women and Trump up 11 with men; a set of Quinnipiac polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin showing Harris winning women by about 20 points in each.
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11:37am
11:37am, 11 Oct 2024
6,673 posts
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paulcook
They are 2022 figures, so midterms, and I really have no idea what difference that would make to - in this case women voting/not voting for Trump. I was more noted the difference between race and age above gender. Some of it doesn't surprise me. |
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11:41am
11:41am, 11 Oct 2024
33,247 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Women more likely to vote than men historically and my sense is they are rather energised by the difference between a pro choice woman and a rapist/Gilead ticket.
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11:48am
11:48am, 11 Oct 2024
46,394 posts
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SPR
Not white women in the last two elections. This article wonders if that will change. theguardian.com |
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11:50am
11:50am, 11 Oct 2024
6,674 posts
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paulcook
This piece kind of answers some of your thoughts JB. And particularly it remarks as you said, about both it being a key point this election and secondly the likeliness (more of) of women voting vs men. And it says of the 7 swing states, 6 have more women voters anyway. brookings.edu |
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11:58am
11:58am, 11 Oct 2024
33,248 posts
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Johnny Blaze
That's a very informative article. Fingers crossed that women smite Mango Mussolini. Even older, Trumpy ladies have daughters and granddaughters who will be influencing them: "don't vote for a man who will take away the freedoms you had".
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12:19pm
12:19pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,214 posts
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rf_fozzy
Sorry, but all this cherry picking of snippets of data is not good logical reasoning I think The fact that yes women will break for Harris in significant numbers or that there are a few bad polls doesn't change the overall position - the data currently shows that it's a 50-50 chance. The point of that 538 podcast snippet was that the normal margin of error in the polls was that it *could* be that Harris wins by +5% and gets 300+ EVs, but that *it is equally likely* that Trump wins by +3% and gets 300+ EVs. Or it could be extremely close. It doesn't matter what your guy says. That's what the data says. Of course polls could be off and it is plausible that pollsters have over corrected from their misses in 2016 and 2020 (midterms don't count here), but they also may not have. Both sides put out partisan polls. The good models take account of this. And one or two doesn't shift the needle. Like it or not, there are a lot of Americans who think the economy was better under trump (without much evidence mind) and worse under biden. And I believe a certain president once said: "it's about the economy, stupid" Then you have the overturning of Roe which will also affect things Plus a myriad of other issues including immigration. But how much and to what extent it is difficult to tell. So we look at the data. Which tells us it is extremely close. I thought Harris had it sewn up 2 months ago (and said so on here), but the data has shown that this is not the case. Question and interrogate the data, for sure, but don't cherry pick! |
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12:28pm
12:28pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,215 posts
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rf_fozzy
Btw Re: crosstab diving - yes in general usually garbage -its usually people desperately looking to sell a particularly narrative and cherry picking something. (There are are obvious exceptions for example in the GE polling when Reform pollster and former politics professor at Kent, Matthew Goodwin got a 0% result for the SNP - clearly there was something wrong there). |
12:32pm
12:32pm, 11 Oct 2024
25,783 posts
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larkim
Agree with fozzy. Theories about how women will vote etc etc are all good; they are points that the Dems need to accentuate to maximise their vote. But if the impact of those thought processes isn't showing in the polls, there's a lot of work to do. If there are effects of "shy wife" etc, then the pollsters should be attempting to compensate for that OR they are part of the margin of error which explains some of the perennial discrepancy between polls and final votes. The Dems need to be screaming "this is too close to call, get out and vote because no-one is going to do it for you". |
12:32pm
12:32pm, 11 Oct 2024
22,248 posts
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Chrisull
(And the other obvious exception of the exclusion of Philadelphia from likely voters... this is viral now anyway)
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