12:46pm
12:46pm, 11 Oct 2024
25,784 posts
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larkim
Sentiment and money drive the betting markets though, not always a robust analysis of the data. See previous discussions!!
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12:50pm
12:50pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,250 posts
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Johnny Blaze
If I was running the Dem campaign I'd be pointing at the polls and telling the team they need to fight for every vote because it's too close to call. I'm not, and I'm just a bloke on tinternet who is unconvinced that the pollsters have: 1 Corrected for the "mistakes" they made last time 2 Correctly controlled for turnout, enthusiasm, ground game and some unique deciding factors - because how can they. In other words there is plenty of room for error and my sense is that it will swing Harris's way on the day. Plenty of grounds for hope. I am happy to eat humble pie if I'm wrong. It's just a discussion thread. |
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12:54pm
12:54pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,251 posts
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Johnny Blaze
In my old job we always had robust discussions between the modellers, who always said "believe the numbers; they don't lie" and the consultants who said, "If we did what you are asking us to do, the client would go bust". Numbers are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.
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12:57pm
12:57pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,252 posts
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Johnny Blaze
JB: constrained optimisation consultant.
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12:58pm
12:58pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,219 posts
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rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: If I was running the Dem campaign I'd be pointing at the polls and telling the team they need to fight for every vote because it's too close to call. I'm not, and I'm just a bloke on tinternet who is unconvinced that the pollsters have: 1 Corrected for the "mistakes" they made last time 2 Correctly controlled for turnout, enthusiasm, ground game and some unique deciding factors - because how can they. In other words there is plenty of room for error and my sense is that it will swing Harris's way on the day. Plenty of grounds for hope. I am happy to eat humble pie if I'm wrong. It's just a discussion thread. This is basically saying that *all* professional pollsters don't know what they are doing.... You are correct though in that you are a bloke on the internet with no expertise in this field. Neither have I. The difference is I'm willing to listen to the experts. |
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12:59pm
12:59pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,253 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Constrained optimization is a mathematical process that finds the best solution to a problem while considering certain limitations, or constraints, on the variables involved. The constraints define the acceptable range of values for the variables. Sounds simple. Wasn't. |
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1:01pm
1:01pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,254 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I'm not "basically saying that" at all. I read polls a lot. I know about statistical sampling theory. But there is complexity beyond that. It's a snapshot not a prediction.
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1:04pm
1:04pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,220 posts
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rf_fozzy
paulcook wrote: rf_fozzy wrote:paulcook wrote:Chrisull wrote:My take is the race has been stable over the last 2 months and nothing has changed... would you like to challenge that assertion? Betting markets currently have it 54-46 % chances Trump over Harris. Harris was ahead in the betting markets for a while, until I think two weeks ago. Betting markets are junk. We have had this debate before. They are more susceptible to significant bias £82 million disagrees with you. They're simply open to the same noises and polling as elsewhere. But this is entirely my point Betting is another form of model, except that it incorporates huge sources of error and bias and most importantly gut "feels" and unconscious bias and sources of error. You might say that these will cancel out, but there's no evidence for that, and as previously stated it's not one person, one vote. It's Elon must £10million votes, Paulcook £10 votes.... |
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1:04pm
1:04pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,221 posts
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rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: I'm not "basically saying that" at all. I read polls a lot. I know about statistical sampling theory. But there is complexity beyond that. It's a snapshot not a prediction. True. Which is why the models exist that take account of the fundamentals and polling trends. And they say it's 50-50 |
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1:09pm
1:09pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,255 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I literally said that if I was running the dem campaign I would be saying it's too close to call. I'm not. I'm going with my instinct, which is partly driven by a naive belief in the fundamental decency which will shape the result. I may be wrong. So may you. We will see. |
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