1:49pm
1:49pm, 11 Oct 2024
1,490 posts
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EarlyRiser
polls v predictions. predictions based on analysis of the merits/demerits (by which i mean objective facts of relative age, coherence, acceptability, arguments, etc.) of the two candidates trump polls for me. harris has it. polls may or may not come round to that view.
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1:51pm
1:51pm, 11 Oct 2024
6,035 posts
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Cheeky’s Dad
Johnny Blaze wrote: Let's put a binary choice: Trump or Harris. Indeterminate outcomes not allowed. Which, Fozzy? I was about to say we’ll know on 6th Nov but, of course, life may not be that simple |
1:52pm
1:52pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,259 posts
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Johnny Blaze
paulcook wrote: At least he’s setting his stall out in an open manner larkim. Best say it now than give people buyer’s remorse. What I don’t get is how leaving the ECHR has become such a key policy, how it probably comes so far down on people’s important issues and why on earth they think it will benefit almost any voters/normal people. It's a wedge issue for the anti-woke/anti-immigration vote would be my guess. |
1:54pm
1:54pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,224 posts
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rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: Let's put a binary choice: Trump or Harris. Indeterminate outcomes not allowed. Which, Fozzy? This is silly. It is not how probabilistic determinism works. If you believe *all* the polls and models, then if no systematic error, then the central range of outcomes is roughly Trump +2 to Harris +5. So it's a statistical tossup |
1:56pm
1:56pm, 11 Oct 2024
6,679 posts
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paulcook
That's the rhetoric I guess. But is it really true. How many sit down at dinner and discuss how they wished we weren't in the ECHR? How many people's lives would benefit? I'm guessing the answer to both those is about 5.
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1:57pm
1:57pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,260 posts
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Johnny Blaze
It's how elections work though...
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1:57pm
1:57pm, 11 Oct 2024
23,225 posts
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rf_fozzy
Cheeky’s Dad wrote: Johnny Blaze wrote:Let's put a binary choice: Trump or Harris. Indeterminate outcomes not allowed. Which, Fozzy? I was about to say we’ll know on 6th Nov but, of course, life may not be that simple Yeah if v v tight, probably won't know a result for a couple of weeks after election day. Who knows what shenanigans the trumpists and USSC will then take. |
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1:58pm
1:58pm, 11 Oct 2024
33,261 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I don't get it either Paul. It's irrelevant to most people unless you buy into the "everything would be better if it wasn't for them pesky Europeans" nonsense.
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2:00pm
2:00pm, 11 Oct 2024
22,252 posts
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Chrisull
And with all that it's getting time for a new poll based on the new elections. I was explain all shortly (it's a simple one with a caveat).
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2:00pm
2:00pm, 11 Oct 2024
17,914 posts
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jda
The probabilistic issues in Harris vs Trump isn’t the universe’s problem, it’s our own. Probability is the language we use to describe our own uncertainties. There’s no “true” answer to the probability of Harris winning. (Well the true answer is either 1 or 0 but we don’t know which yet…) |
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