Ha TMW - yes I have changed although not that dramatically. The one thing is that pollsters agree there is not many votes difference between a Tory landslide and a hung Parliament, because of where the Labour leave vote is distributed.
It's not going to be a hung Parliament now. The actual figures and word in on the ground is that Labour's "red wall" is gonna be eaten away, as Labour 2017 voters do not like Corbyn. He is discredited and not liked. He got away with it before being "new" as Johnson is getting away with it now.
Johnson is not seen as a Tory, but a maverick a la Trump or Farage and that's why he will pick up more Labour votes than any Tory normally doesn't. Apparently the "lying" and "untrustworthyness" is part of his schtick, and that's factored in. People know what he's like but they don't care.
But yes it's over. Tory majority somewhere between 20-100, but I'd still say 30-50 is the most likely band. Seems like the SNP won't take that many from the Tories now either, 4 or 5 at best.
I still can't see why Johnson, with a large majority, would allow another Scottish referendum. The man is utterly unscrupulous so Scotland shouldn't expect any favours. Sturgeon was on the radio the other day and she said quite emphatically that she would not Ben going down the "Catalonia" route because it would lack legitimacy and hey, look what happened to the leaders in that one.
I think in general terms, assuming they do win the election by a country mile, the new government will be presiding over a divided country with a leader who is already damaged goods. I can't see things going well for them because essentially they are stuffed with dimwits, ideologues and chancers, but time will tell.
JB, unfortunately with everything turning to shit around them as forecast, the Government and right wing press will have no option but to further radicalize the people. Expect to see more and more hatred whipped up against the EU, Europe and Europeans.
'Key to this would be the one in four Scots (26 per cent) who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum saying that they will back the SNP next week. The findings signal that the nationalists are holding on to independence-backing Brexiteers despite running an avowedly pro-EU campaign.'
Its hurting my head to try and work this out. Scottish leave voters also support independence but the SNP are using the UK vote to leave as a change in circumstances that mean we should have a 2nd referendum.
I am not sure I agree with the 60/40 argument, even if it would mean the chances of Independence are close to zero right now. I might also be out of line in that I think the outcome of each referendum should be respected. In the case of Brexit though I would hope the deal secured is the best (least bad) available which I dont believe is the case right now.
Half watched the debate, it’s the first primary piece of observation I’ve made this election (mainly been following via the 2 Gs, Guido and Guardian).
Basically another score draw, no-one made a massive boo-boo and no one has changed their mind about either man. I do admire Boris’s ability to work in “get brexit done” into any answer.
Felt Corbyn should have hammered home the countries he wants the UK to emulate eg Scandinavia a bit more. Although as it’s been said many times before, we don’t want to pay the tax to get these services.
The issue is it’s too easy to say IRA, Hamas, national anthem etc in response, Corbyn has too many causes associated with him which limit his mass appeal.
the biggest cock up in all of this dates back to all of the cheap slogans from 2016 about quick and easy exits, when perhaps not too many of the electorate are aware of the nuances and complexity of international diplomacy, and how timeous it is. the tories are still playing off this utterly false premise.
anyway, for absolute scenes next thursday:
a) tories get achingly short on 320-322 seats
b) the DUP tell them to get stuffed c) swinson, in a remarkable first of abiding by principles, doesn't sell herself out d) sinn fein decide to turn up and piss on boris' chips.....
Name-calling will be called out, and Ad hominem will be frowned upon. And whatabout-ery sits somewhere above responding to tone and below contradiction.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
