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Nov 2019
8:20am, 2 Nov 2019
734 posts
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Roberto
In other news the government have conveniently "banned" fracking with immediate effect. Well, at least according to the headlines that people read. When you actually read the information, it's a temporary ban until new evidence comes forward (which I'm sure wont be on the 13th december.....)
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Nov 2019
9:21am, 2 Nov 2019
22,864 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I am oscillating between two scenarios at the moment:
A Tory landslide, in which case I fear for the future of the country
A hung parliament due to any one or more of the following:
Tory/Johnson cock-ups and incompetence - quite possible, given their abject performance since 2015 and the fact that the cabinet has a higher than normal quota of idiots
A drift back to Labour after a strong manifesto
The youth appearing like the Riders of Rohan at first light of the fifth day to banish the Hordes of Gammon
Some measure of tactical voting giving the Lib Dems 50 seats. If the Lib Dems and the SNP get 100 seats between them it will make Johnson's life very difficult.
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Nov 2019
10:02am, 2 Nov 2019
1,669 posts
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Pothunter
Lol at Riders of Rohan banishing the Hordes of Gammon 
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Nov 2019
12:10pm, 2 Nov 2019
15,446 posts
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Chrisull
JB - sounds like me, I'm at the stage 1) of the oscillation and am thinking now predicting 50 seat majority for Johnson, not because he's popular, but because the Labour vote is either a) staying at home, b) some of it going to the Brexit party in the North and c) going to the Lib dems in Wales and the South West and London. The worst scenario being Lib Dems and Brexit party taking no seats off the Tories, but drawing enough votes to let them in, in places the Tories might not otherwise get a chance in normally.
Roberto - heartened to hear you think it might be rubbish, it was a small poll (500), and there is a chance for Labour to draw back the discontents. The Tory vote is decreasing, also the Daily Mail latest Brexit poll (which is biased in favour of Leave) has 54% Remain - 46% Leave, so really there should be the numbers throughout the country to defeat the Tories. And what I neglected to think was that these 2017 voters for Lab who have "switched", well without a Brexit party, they might have been in a non-voting column anyway. Plus of course there is the unreliability factor, people can't remember who they voted for last time or remember it incorrectly.
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Nov 2019
5:49pm, 2 Nov 2019
2,353 posts
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Fellrunning
One poll doesn't make a parliament.
You only have to look at or listen to the vox pop "we visited place X to ask people what they thought" which invariably results in an overwhelmingly biased impression.
I do think that the Tories will have a good majority. Mostly because a lot of people have fallen for the "Get it done" hype which isn't being challenged.
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Nov 2019
6:13pm, 2 Nov 2019
5,793 posts
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jda
I think you lot have been consistently too pessimistic for the past 3 years.
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Nov 2019
6:29pm, 2 Nov 2019
35,117 posts
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Nellers
Can I ask a question, because some of you lot know the rules much better than me.
So the Met have given a file of evidence tot eh CPS about Johnson and Cummings fiddling the leave campaign. They didn't do this with the other allegations citing lack of evidence so it looks like it's going to go somewhere.
The CPS have said (more or less) that they won't action things during an election campaign so we've got a very real possibility of electing someone who is then prosecuted for electoral fraud, and he might or might not get convicted.
If a sitting prime minister is convicted of such a thing what are the rules? Does he stay PM? And if not how is he removed? Do Parliament remove him or does the Queen? Has it ever happened before?
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Nov 2019
6:32pm, 2 Nov 2019
15,450 posts
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Chrisull
fellrunning - that's not what the polls are showing. The Tory vote is ebbing away. The only problem is the Labour vote is collapsing.
A hung Parliament is still quite likely given :
a) SNP are gonna take all/nearly all of Scotland (thats 10-13 seats from the Tories)
b) Lib Dems are gonna take about 10 seats or more from the Tories in London and the South West.
The Tories are already under a majority anyway, losing another 20 seats, they need to win 30 or so directly from Labour, just to get a 1 seat majority.
The issue is the Lab/Lib Dem squabbling means they take each others votes and let Tories in, without the Tories increasing their vote at all. That's what makes me pessimistic.
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Nov 2019
9:43pm, 2 Nov 2019
8,711 posts
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Son of a Pronator Man
And in the last Parliament they could count onDUP support. That won’t happen again.
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Nov 2019
1:59pm, 3 Nov 2019
2,354 posts
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Fellrunning
Seems you may be right JB Farage not standing points to him looking for the exit. He can't be PM if he's not an MP. Brexit Party, like UKIP is a Farage personality cult. Without him they just fall apart.
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