Nov 2019
12:20pm, 1 Nov 2019
15,548 posts
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Bazoaxe
HG ,its not so easy in Scotland if you are a Yes voter. SNP not an option for me as any vote for them will be used as evidence of a desire for Independence.
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Nov 2019
1:17pm, 1 Nov 2019
168 posts
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TommyK
Well, what do I know? Ms Sturgeon has confirmed this morning that the Scottish Government will, before Christmas, request Section 30 authority to hold a second independence referendum next year. |
Nov 2019
1:27pm, 1 Nov 2019
15,441 posts
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Chrisull
Farage rowed back from No deal apparently. He is looking for a harder, hard Brexit deal (ie complete removal from ECJ etc). Meanwhile a quick reminder - more Tory remainers than Labour Leavers... twitter.com Kind of confirms my feeling that if Corbyn was to resign and Starmer (or someone similarly non-scary, non confrontational) was to be the face of Labour, they'd get in with a landslide. That is the annoying thing. |
Nov 2019
1:34pm, 1 Nov 2019
33,001 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Bazo, yes, sorry, I was thinking only in terms of economic and social policies. Of course, any vote for SNP is interpreted as a vote for Independence, which I ken yer agin. Out of interest, how do you vote in Scottish Govt elections, if you're prepared to say? SNP in Scottish Parliament are now a minority with coalition. Arguably a vote in Scot Parliament elections isn't a vote for Independence as the Scottish Parliament isn't the one who controls constitutional affairs, it's Westminster. SNP is just another party in the Scottish Parliament, slightly left of centre, not bad with the money, not perfect on all issues, but not the Tories, and not the ScotSocialist or Communist Party. Sort of on the spectrum with Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. As it should be really. Wish Scottish Parliament was the Westminster parliament. They're not perfect, but at least they're civil!  G
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Nov 2019
1:37pm, 1 Nov 2019
15,442 posts
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Chrisull
Also here on Twitter from Sky News ... interesting "jon_trickett confirms to me (Sky News) that if Labour got into government and negotiated a new deal, he’d vote for that Brexit over remain in a new referendum." This makes me think that Labour's ultimate position would be , negotiate new deal with probably Common Market/Customs Union - put it to 2nd referendum, and then campaign to leave on those terms. Trouble is Labour are wrongly thinking being a Remain party is a dealbreaker with their Northern Leavers, when it is Corbyn: source You Gov: 20-21 October Leave voters prefer Johnson to Corbyn 73% to 5%. More than 5% of leave voters are historical labour voters. And Corybn is basically what is stopping them making up ground with Tory Remainers too. |
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Nov 2019
1:43pm, 1 Nov 2019
15,443 posts
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Chrisull
Oh and heres another poltics prof with further on that: "People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain) Farage, in short, is making the John Mann error of thinking most Lab votes in Lab Leave seats are Leave voters. They aren’t. By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats Once again the date of Brexit may hinge on politicians’ inability to understand the ecological fallacy Appreciate this may be hard to follow so will break it down: 1. Most Lab votes in Leave seats Farage is targeting voted Remain in 2016 2.The voters who will find BXP most attractive in such seats likely to be those who voted UKIP in 2015 3. Most of those voters backed Con in 2017 4. Therefore, BXP will typically (tho not always) hurt Con more than Lab in such seats. Just as (and indeed because) UKIP’s collapse in 2017 benefitted Con more than Lab in such sets If you’re a Con running a May 2.0 strategy there’s no possible world in which a rebooted ukip 2.0 is helpful to you" |
Nov 2019
1:52pm, 1 Nov 2019
22,863 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I tend to think Tory Remainers will break for the LD more than Labour - because of Corbyn. I have no data to back this up, other than in my constituency 66% of voters went Tory last time but there was a rough 50/50 split at the referendum: ergo there may be 15% or so Tory Remainers who might choose to prioritise Brexit and break for the LD. There will certainly be a lot of Labour voters here who will go Lib Dem this time, I reckon, but I doubt it will do more than hack a chunk off an inevitable Tory majority. The Tories got 50% of the vote when Blair was in his pomp so it's difficult to see them losing our seat. It could happen if a BP candidate got 10% of the vote but I can't see it personally: sometimes the planets just can't align. |
Nov 2019
3:17pm, 1 Nov 2019
5,780 posts
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jda
I’m looking forward to goading any brexiters I encounter locally. Probably won't achieve anything but I'll find it amusing
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Nov 2019
3:23pm, 1 Nov 2019
11,330 posts
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Cerrertonia
I think you're right, Johnny Blaze. Remember reading that the Conservative party's own polling data says any kind of deal with Farage loses them many more votes to the LDs than they gain from Brexit Party.
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Nov 2019
4:21pm, 1 Nov 2019
1,673 posts
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Zorba
Vote Corbyn and get Sturgeon ? Thanks , but no thanks
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