Oct 2019
8:50am, 31 Oct 2019
165 posts
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TommyK
"...saying no will magnify the independence sentiment rather than make it go away." Simbil, I agree this would be the case for those die-hard independence supporters. However, I think they'd be outweighed by the die-hard unionists and those who look at our Brexit mess and think "No thanks, I don't want any more of that". I don't see the polls shifting in to positive support territory for Independence anytime soon, BoJo or no BoJo. Meantime, it still suits the SNP's purposes to point the finger at big, bad Westminster and say they're not allowing it (the equivilant of me saying I d |
Oct 2019
8:51am, 31 Oct 2019
10,016 posts
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Markymarkmark
Our MPs collectively do represent the wider population in most ways. That means that there's a pretty good chance that there's a percentage of thickos and theives in the HoC as well as noble, compassionate, caring and dedicated MPs trying to do their best in a messy situation. Just think, if you have an average IQ, you're probably brighter than 50% of them! |
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Oct 2019
8:53am, 31 Oct 2019
166 posts
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TommyK
Starting again! The equivalent of me saying SWMBO won't allow me to retire when I don't want to retire at the moment anyway. |
Oct 2019
9:08am, 31 Oct 2019
29,582 posts
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SPR
Happy #DieInADitchDay everyone!
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Oct 2019
9:22am, 31 Oct 2019
15,427 posts
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Chrisull
JB - Nice to see you back here. And the Tory party manifesto being written by hard right teenagers? It's worse than that it's being partly written by an ex Revolutionary Communist, turned libertarian (one of the Spiked crowd, quelle surprise): en.wikipedia.org |
Oct 2019
9:30am, 31 Oct 2019
1,554 posts
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Surelynot
On Scottish independence, if there are continued threats such as the PM's yesterday to remove powers from the Scottish Parliament this will increase pressure for independence.
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Oct 2019
9:32am, 31 Oct 2019
15,428 posts
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Chrisull
Counter intuitive reasons to be hopeful: 1) The split between Lab and Lib Dem votes will not hurt the final result as much as the split between Tory and Brexit Party votes. This is because of the distribution of the vote. Tory and Brexit Party voters tender to cluster in the same constituencies, and areas, whereas Lib Dems and Labour cluster in different areas. This isn't just anecdotal, but verifiable, by testing on the actual figures: twitter.com It can be improved further by tactical voting. 2) Brexit party not standing against Tories in up to 150 seats (as possibly being announced tomorrow), might be worse for the Tories. The New Statesman ran a test on this in 2015. Strong UKIP showing and Lib Dem collapse led to Cameron majority. A weak UKIP showing and some Lib Dem rallying would have led to a hung Parliament: twitter.com |
Oct 2019
9:32am, 31 Oct 2019
24,486 posts
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Wriggling Snake
Reading back. May led an awful campaign, she really did, and awful leader and an awful politician, as she went to go n and prove again and again, what got the Tory vote out, more than anything, was Corbyn, and he will do again. The difference now is that Corbyn has been found out as a dithering, ineffectual leader, who is incapable of making a decision, and about to make a huge mistake in saying bog all about Brexit, when actually he needs a position on it, not to pretend it isn't there. The labour vote will crumble in both staunchly remain and staunchly leave constituencies unless he addresses the issue. That's why 100 MPs abstained, they're shit scared. |
Oct 2019
9:32am, 31 Oct 2019
22,854 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Yes. I confess I am quite puzzled by the RCP presence at the top levels of government. I wonder how many Conservative Party supporters are aware of it? The whole attitude of Spiked people confuses the hell out of me – much like the DUP’s support for Brexit, it makes no sense to me. Even when I try to understand their serpentine logic I find it hard to understand how former communists end up in the inner circles of a Tory Number 10 and as Brexit Party MEPs.
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Oct 2019
9:37am, 31 Oct 2019
15,429 posts
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Chrisull
They were scared in 2017, and the worst never happened. A lot of people had big doubts about Corbyn then (remember my stat about in studies in the US most people have made uop their mind about WHO they will vote for before an election campaign even starts) yet voted for the party. I agree with the JB line that some of 2017 can be discounted, BUT 30 years of voting labour or however many, cannot be. If these voters didn't crack for a more moderate and widely (at the time) acknowledged to be more likable leader, why would they vote for an Eton toff who stands against everything they hate? I still think Johnson will win a small majority (mainly because Lib Dems and Labour too busy fighting each other), but Corbyn had been leader for 2 years by 2017, had looked terrible then. The exit polls were a huge shock for everyone, and the result hasn't been adequately explained in retrospect (JC was new, unknown, avuncular blah di blah - are partly nonsense). |
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