Oct 2019
5:20pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,422 posts
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Chrisull
Johnson is starting out nearly 10% lower in the polls than May did, and Labour are at roughly the same position, so there is hope. He is a marmite politician and I don't think he polls well in the north. May was definitely a more sympathetic figure. Singapore on Thames is an early election gaffe. And "conventional" wisdom was that May was an awful campaigner, and corbyn a veteran one, and that's what changed it in 2017, but apparently most election campaigns according to the stats have little/to no impact on how people are gonna vote. There minds are made up already, the "swing" voter as such doesn't really exist - although there are certainly don't knows. I think this study was done in the States, but here it's true - Liberal one nation Tories, Labour voters repelled by Corbyn... but by and large most swing back to their own sides. However tactical voting and the leave/remain divisions might change things in strange and unusual ways. Johnson's hope is this is a Brexit election. Corbyn's hope is that it is one about the NHS and education. |
Oct 2019
5:26pm, 30 Oct 2019
10,007 posts
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Markymarkmark
I'm a bit depressed already by the amount of mudslinging I'm imagining. I shall be voting against the incumbent, and probably not for my preferred candidate. What a rubbish electoral system. |
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Oct 2019
5:32pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,424 posts
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Chrisull
My questions are on what will influence proceedings for the "rebel alliance" are: 1) Remainers turned Leavers and now saying "Get it done". Are they a real thing? Do they outnumber the general Leave to Remain swing that EVERY POLL bar one this year (74 out of 75) has shown. My gut feeling is that they aren't. If they were those polls would look very different. But I could be wrong, they may be. 2) Shy remainers. My experience of being in a Leave constituency is that people are outspoken about wanting to leave, their displeasure at immigrants/benefit scroungers whatever and as winners, where as remainers have sloped away into the shadows finding each other through things like secret handshakes (I exaggerate but not too wildly), afraid to speak up, not wanting to risk the wrath of "the will of the people", "it's democracy", "get it done" and other such cliches. This may be reversed in the capital - but here n Cornwall I'd say it's a thing. How much of a thing, I don't know. 3) The willingness of people to tactical vote, and the reliability of the tactical voting web sites (not very). 4) The unpopularity of Corbyn (and his weakness over anti-semitism - I stress I don't think he's an anti-semite, but his actions over it have been tepid, insipid, spineless) - will that override people's ability to cluster behind the opposition to Johnson in key seats? 5) How much the Lib Dems underperform their expectations. This is always a thing. 6) How much the Lib Dems and Labour can stop their friendly fire and work if not together, at least in a way that stops them self-harming. |
Oct 2019
5:46pm, 30 Oct 2019
11,312 posts
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Cerrertonia
Suspect #2 applies just as much to "shy" leavers. At my old employer (very successful British tech company which does nearly all of its business in China, US, Japan & India), I can only think of two people out of many hundreds who openly supported leave. Career and social suicide to be seen by the bulk of your colleagues as a bit racist and/or a bit thick.
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Oct 2019
6:37pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,425 posts
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Chrisull
True, I did say in London it might be the other way, and perhaps other big cities (excepting Birmingham). Back to election predictions. Electoral Calculus on Camborne/Redruth. electoralcalculus.co.uk So From a 1500 majority over Labour to Lab and Lib Dem splitting a winning vote half/half... I don't see it. Also the Brexit Party - where are they to be seen? Has Farage done a deal with Johnson? |
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Oct 2019
6:59pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,426 posts
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Chrisull
So Electoral calculus also has Bolsover going to the Tories. (which was also predicted last time). It's a bold call. If Skinner is still standing, well he has managed to poll over 20,000 every time since 1970, and that has ALWAYS been enough to win the seat. In fact in 2017 his vote was up on the previous two (so was the Tories). The UKIPization of Labour happened actually before 2015 (when Labour lost working class voters to UKIP, is that gonna happen again to the Tories?) This is a bellweather seat for Labour, as a betting man I'd still be tempted to back Skinner, even last time he polled over 50% of the votes cast.
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Oct 2019
7:28pm, 30 Oct 2019
11,313 posts
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Cerrertonia
Labour lost Bolsover council for the first time in 40+ years this year, didn't they? Skinner (like Corbyn) has been campaigning to leave the EU since the 1970s, and I'm pretty sure his constituents know that.
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Oct 2019
8:21pm, 30 Oct 2019
22,850 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I think the last election proved that almost 100% of predictions at the start of the campaign turned out to be wrong. Not just "a bit wrong" but utterly wrong. I also think that anyone who relies in any way on results from 2017 to predict 2019 is potentially going to be very wrong indeed. And that Johnson could lose votes as well as hold onto them. And that Leavers in "The North" might baulk at voting for any Tory Party, let alone one so stuffed full of heartless ideologues, charlatans, liars, cheats, hypocrites and idiots. And that a Tory Manifesto being written by hard right teenagers which will be authorised by a bunch of group-thinking, hard right bellends and a PM who has a goldfish's grasp of detail might fall foul of the same kind of issues that the Maybot's did. It's all to play for and it is Johnson's to lose, just like it was the Maybot's to lose. That didn't end well and that gives me hope. But as someone once said, "It's the Hope that kills you." |
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Oct 2019
8:23pm, 30 Oct 2019
22,851 posts
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Johnny Blaze
And yes, Farage's silence is a bit worrying...
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Oct 2019
8:43pm, 30 Oct 2019
24,479 posts
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Wriggling Snake
May. Awful politician. Awful leader. Awful campaigner. Johnson will.not be as bad. Corbyn is shite. I can see it, can see a very decent sized Tory majority because the labour/lib Democrats vote will be split all over. |
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